Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Expedia Group's Q4 2023 financial results revealed a solid year of performance with the company meeting its guidance despite significant changes and unpredictability.</li><li>A key highlight was the strong revenue and EBITDA performance, with lodging business recording another record quarter in hotel gross bookings, growing 13% YoY. There was, however, some softness in gross bookings primarily driven by air, which was largely due to a reduction in average ticket prices.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Expedia Group's Q4 2023 financial results revealed a solid year of performance with the company meeting its guidance despite significant changes and unpredictability.A key highlight was the strong revenue and EBITDA performance, with lodging business recording another record quarter in hotel gross bookings, growing 13% YoY. There was, however, some softness in gross bookings primarily driven by air, which was largely due to a reduction in average ticket prices.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Expedia Group: Boosting European Travel with New Partnerships! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Expedia Group, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, surpassing expectations with significant revenue and EBITDA despite challenges such as the Maui fires impacting the Vrbo business.</li><li>Amid global challenges, the management closely monitored escalating violence in the Middle East, affecting travel in early October.</li><li>Additionally, the B2C business has gained momentum, with year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 accelerating over 400 basis points sequentially.</li></ul>

Expedia Group, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, surpassing expectations with significant revenue and EBITDA despite challenges such as the Maui fires impacting the Vrbo business.Amid global challenges, the management closely monitored escalating violence in the Middle East, affecting travel in early October.Additionally, the B2C business has gained momentum, with year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 accelerating over 400 basis points sequentially.

Expedia Group Inc.: Pioneering Travel with AI and Machine Learning Marvels! - Major Drivers

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>4Q23 results beat expectations with record revenues and profits and announced a maiden cash dividend of USD8.75/share (0.35% yield)</li>
<li>But, share price plunged by 10% on soft guidance of 4-6% YoY growth in room-night booked in 1Q24, due to the impact of high-interest rates and the ongoing wars </li>
<li>Good opportunity to buy on dips, stock trading at ~20x FY24 PE, ~18% discount to LT mean. Plus, there is a balance USD7.5b (6.1% shares in issue) of share buybacks  </li>
</ul>


4Q23 results beat expectations with record revenues and profits and announced a maiden cash dividend of USD8.75/share (0.35% yield)
But, share price plunged by 10% on soft guidance of 4-6% YoY growth in room-night booked in 1Q24, due to the impact of high-interest rates and the ongoing wars 
Good opportunity to buy on dips, stock trading at ~20x FY24 PE, ~18% discount to LT mean. Plus, there is a balance USD7.5b (6.1% shares in issue) of share buybacks  


Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last month, Reuters reported that activist-ish investor Value Act Capital Management had bought a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> and separately in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/expedia-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6669:1" rel="noopener">Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)</a>). </li>
<li>It was "revealed" in a letter to its clients. And there were reasons stated why Value Act thought Recruit was worth a lot more than it was trading for. </li>
<li>Today, Recruit announced an on-market buyback for ¥200bn. That's nice. But it is not enormous, and it may signal other info, and it is worth understanding details and context.</li>
</ul>


Last month, Reuters reported that activist-ish investor Value Act Capital Management had bought a stake in Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) and separately in Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)). 
It was "revealed" in a letter to its clients. And there were reasons stated why Value Act thought Recruit was worth a lot more than it was trading for. 
Today, Recruit announced an on-market buyback for ¥200bn. That's nice. But it is not enormous, and it may signal other info, and it is worth understanding details and context.


Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

United States

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)

Expedia Group: Boosting European Travel with New Partnerships! - Major Drivers

Expedia Group's Q4 2023 financial results revealed a solid year of performance with the company meeting its guidance despite significant changes...

Baptista Research

Expedia Group Inc.: Pioneering Travel with AI and Machine Learning Marvels! - Major Drivers

Expedia Group, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, surpassing expectations with significant revenue and EBITDA despite...

Baptista Research

Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

Booking.com's record 2023 results and cash dividend announcement was overshadowed by soft guidance, leading to a 10% share price drop. However,...

Mohshin Aziz

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

Recruit has announced a ¥200bn buyback. Last year's market buyback was ¥150bn. This is NOT "Value Act Effect" but it may be taken as such. That...

Travis Lundy

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