Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p><p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p><p>We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.</p><p>Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Geojit BNP Paribas

Geojit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive &amp; industrial batteries and holds 86% market share in the 2W space. Q1FY22 revenue grew by 61% YoY primarily due to lower base and strong growth from the Aftermarket &amp; UPS segment. As a result, EBITDA margin expanded by 90bps YoY.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive &amp; industrial batteries and holds 86% market share in the 2W space. Q1FY22 revenue grew by 61% YoY primarily due to lower base and strong growth from the Aftermarket &amp; UPS segment. As a result, EBITDA margin expanded by 90bps YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exide Industries: Superior Product Mix and Cost Optimization

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.</p></div><div><p>Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.</p></div><div></div><div>
<p>We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-has-its-positives-but-we-remain-unconvinced" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced</a></li>
</ul>
</div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</p></div>

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.
We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures 
Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Forensic Accounting

<p>As promised at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-webinar-accounting-and-insider-diagnostics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40146" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Webinar | Accounting and Insider Diagnostics</a>, we have extended our forensic analysis model to India. <em>To learn more about our detailed forensic analysis framework, please refer to our original note on forensic analysis model that caters to Developed Asia at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-forensic-analysis-tool-for-detecting-accounting-red-flags-focus-on-developed-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36832" rel="noopener">A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia</a>.</em></p>
<p>In this insight, we run our forensic analysis model through our India focused universe that comprises of 141 listed Indian companies that have futures available for shorting on NSE. We score these Indian listed companies to identify high-risk accounting candidates.</p>

As promised at Smartkarma Webinar | Accounting and Insider Diagnostics, we have extended our forensic analysis model to India. To learn more about our detailed forensic analysis framework, please refer to our original note on forensic analysis model that caters to Developed Asia at A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia.
In this insight, we run our forensic analysis model through our India focused universe that comprises of 141 listed Indian companies that have futures available for shorting on NSE. We score these Indian listed companies to identify high-risk accounting candidates.

Forensic Accounting | High Risk Companies in India

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The news flow for Indian Auto Industry is turning from bad to worse over previous few weeks as there have been multiple reports highlighting poor festival season sales, decline in numbers for vehicle registrations, sharp increase in inventory at dealers and liquidity crunch potentially impacting sales of CVs. However, November has not been that bad for several auto stocks and BSE Auto Index has also outperformed BSE SENSEX, albeit only marginally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/733" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18316" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> have all been up approximately 10% or even more. This has led to a discussion on investment rationale in several stocks that bad news is fully in their price now and after the huge correction in the months of September and October, the market expectations have become more reasonable on how their business and financial performance will be. While this is somewhat true, we think that November sales numbers for the industry will be the real test because these figures will actually tell you how inventory has moved to end customers from dealers during the festive season. That will be a key factor in determining the near-term direction for these stocks in Indian Auto space.</p>

The news flow for Indian Auto Industry is turning from bad to worse over previous few weeks as there have been multiple reports highlighting poor festival season sales, decline in numbers for vehicle registrations, sharp increase in inventory at dealers and liquidity crunch potentially impacting sales of CVs. However, November has not been that bad for several auto stocks and BSE Auto Index has also outperformed BSE SENSEX, albeit only marginally. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN) have all been up approximately 10% or even more. This has led to a discussion on investment rationale in several stocks that bad news is fully in their price now and after the huge correction in the months of September and October, the market expectations have become more reasonable on how their business and financial performance will be. While this is somewhat true, we think that November sales numbers for the industry will be the real test because these figures will actually tell you how inventory has moved to end customers from dealers during the festive season. That will be a key factor in determining the near-term direction for these stocks in Indian Auto space.

India: News Flow Is Turning Even More Negative for Autos but Stocks Doing Well, What's Going On?

India

Exide Industries Ltd. manufactures a wide range of lead and electric storage batteries. The Company's batteries for automobiles, railways, aircrafts, power stations, telephone exchanges, and other uses.

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Exide Industries (EXID IN)

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Halfway through the review period, we take a look at stocks that could migrate across the large, mid and small cap segments. With over US$100bn of...

Brian Freitas

Exide Industries: Superior Product Mix and Cost Optimization

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive &...

Geojit

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

Forensic Accounting | High Risk Companies in India

As promised at Smartkarma Webinar | Accounting and Insider Diagnostics, we have extended our forensic analysis model to India. To learn more about...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

India: News Flow Is Turning Even More Negative for Autos but Stocks Doing Well, What's Going On?

The news flow for Indian Auto Industry is turning from bad to worse over previous few weeks as there have been multiple reports highlighting poor...

Pankaj Sharma

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