Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.</li>
<li>Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.</li>
</ul>


The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">T</a>he bankers provided the IPO price range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)</a> IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. </strong></p></div><p>Shift4 Payments is one of the leaders in the U.S. in providing integrated payment processing, delivering numerous solutions and value-added services. Companies such as Shift4 Payments that are involved in the payments for online/mobile payments infrastructure are benefiting from the COVID-19 pandemic as customers make more payments with contactless payments and online banking services.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>In our base case valuation, we used the gross revenue estimate of $1.1 billion in 2021 and used a P/S multiple of 2.2x, which is at a 40% discount to the valuation multiple of Evo Payments in 2021.</strong> We believe such discounted multiple is appropriate for Shift4 Payments due to its lower gross and operating margins versus Evo Payments, despite the former company's higher gross revenue growth rate. </p>
<p>Despite lower P/S multiple of 2.2x, this suggests an implied market cap of $2.4 billion or $29.40 per share, which represents a 40% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $21 per share. Given the solid upside, we would take this IPO deal.</p>
<p>We also believe that this company could be a nice take out candidate as the global payment industry continues to consolidate rapidly. </p>
</div>

The bankers provided the IPO price range for Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. Shift4 Payments is one of the leaders in the U.S. in providing integrated payment processing, delivering numerous solutions and value-added services. Companies such as Shift4 Payments that are involved in the payments for online/mobile payments infrastructure are benefiting from the COVID-19 pandemic as customers make more payments with contactless payments and online banking services.
In our base case valuation, we used the gross revenue estimate of $1.1 billion in 2021 and used a P/S multiple of 2.2x, which is at a 40% discount to the valuation multiple of Evo Payments in 2021. We believe such discounted multiple is appropriate for Shift4 Payments due to its lower gross and operating margins versus Evo Payments, despite the former company's higher gross revenue growth rate. 
Despite lower P/S multiple of 2.2x, this suggests an implied market cap of $2.4 billion or $29.40 per share, which represents a 40% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $21 per share. Given the solid upside, we would take this IPO deal.
We also believe that this company could be a nice take out candidate as the global payment industry continues to consolidate rapidly. 


United States

Evo Payments, Inc. operates as a payment technology and services provider. The Company offers payment solutions to the merchants ranging from micro-enterprises to multinational companies and organizations. Evo Payments serves customers North America and Europe.

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Evo Payments Inc (EVOP US)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

$SPX is testing important resistance in the 4165-4180 area, the same resistance level we were monitoring in early June before the market tumbled 13...

Vermilion Research

Shift4 Payments IPO Valuation Analysis

The bankers provided the IPO price range for Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. Shift4...

Douglas Kim

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