Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes</li>
<li>The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%</li>
<li>The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes
The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%
The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024


Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022</li>
<li>The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications</li>
<li>You can <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">join this year's 'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook</li>
</ul>


We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022
The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications
You can join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook


China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 19-25, 2024

<ul>
<li>We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.</li>
<li>Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.</li>
<li>Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.</li>
</ul>


We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.
Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.
Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.


China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Before getting into the forecasts for 2024, reviewing how the past forecasts fared vs the actuals can be quite illuminating, here is the case for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 19-25, 2024

This note is a weekly (Jan 19-25, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

China Housing - visualizing more granular city-level property data over multiple periods of time gives a better intuition about the market across...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

China property developers in distress (Jan 12-18, 2024) - deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)