Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth.

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth. 

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that:<ul>
<li>1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the Chinese economy as it drives the entire food chain from commodities, land prices, local government fiscal revenues, construction activities, to household discretionary spending and thus to China’s GDP; and</li>
<li>2) the housing market is a policy tool that the government uses to manage the relationship between the macro economy, asset prices, wealth distribution…</li>
</ul>

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that:
1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the Chinese economy as it drives the entire food chain from commodities, land prices, local government fiscal revenues, construction activities, to household discretionary spending and thus to China’s GDP; and
2) the housing market is a policy tool that the government uses to manage the relationship between the macro economy, asset prices, wealth distribution…


Exports Driven Chinese Housing Market Stabilization; Expect Liquidity Tightening After Luna New Year

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by the policy factors and the increased land supply, with sales volumes also slowing but proving more resilient. In this note, we cover the summary of the forecast and some notes from our 6th Annual China Property Outlook seminar we held on January 16.

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by the policy factors and the increased land supply, with sales volumes also slowing but proving more resilient. In this note, we cover the summary of the forecast and some notes from our 6th Annual China Property Outlook seminar we held on January 16.

China Property 2018 Forecast Summary - What Will The Housing Market Do?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Once upon a time there was a real estate developer which IPOed in Hong Kong (IPOed in late 2012) which had a habit of releasing a short statement every month in the first 6-12 days, reporting "Unaudited Operating Statistics for Month Year".In that statement it reported on the contracted sales results of the previous month in currency terms and in Gross Floor Area, and the results of the year-to-date in the same way. In the January release, full-year results were generally presented. An example…

Once upon a time there was a real estate developer which IPOed in Hong Kong (IPOed in late 2012) which had a habit of releasing a short statement every month in the first 6-12 days, reporting "Unaudited Operating Statistics for Month Year".In that statement it reported on the contracted sales results of the previous month in currency terms and in Gross Floor Area, and the results of the year-to-date in the same way. In the January release, full-year results were generally presented. An example…

Ci Fi Ho Hum : CIFI (884 HK) Goes to Market... Surprise!

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth...

Robert Ciemniak

Exports Driven Chinese Housing Market Stabilization; Expect Liquidity Tightening After Luna New Year

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that: 1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the...

JL Warren Capital

China Property 2018 Forecast Summary - What Will The Housing Market Do?

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by...

Robert Ciemniak

Ci Fi Ho Hum : CIFI (884 HK) Goes to Market... Surprise!

Once upon a time there was a real estate developer which IPOed in Hong Kong (IPOed in late 2012) which had a habit of releasing a short statement...

Travis Lundy

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global...

Steven Holden

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