Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

With the US dollar and EM currencies on aggregate trading in a range for much of the year, their volatilities have dropped to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Since a drop in volatility engenders a carry-trade environment, we test this hypothesis on EM currencies and conclude that indeed currencies with high risk-adjusted carry have been outperforming, and vice versa. A currency that we continue to like from the perspective of improving carry is the Chilean peso.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the US dollar and EM currencies on aggregate trading in a range for much of the year, their volatilities have dropped to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Since a drop in volatility engenders a carry-trade environment, we test this hypothesis on EM currencies and conclude that indeed currencies with high risk-adjusted carry have been outperforming, and vice versa. A currency that we continue to like from the perspective of improving carry is the Chilean peso.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Are EM Currencies in a Carry-Trade Environment?

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

Poland

The Polish Zloty dollar is the official currency of Poland

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PLN (USDPLN CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

As the US dollar turns trendless, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers in EM. I also...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Are EM Currencies in a Carry-Trade Environment?

As the volatilities of the US dollar and EM currencies have dropped, we test the hypothesis and conclude that EM FX is in a carry-trade...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

With many EM central banks embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

We identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed with the dollar depreciating since the end of March and place our outstanding...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)