Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>How do you assess whether the outcome of a Central Bank meeting was hawkish or dovish? Simple: you look at the delivered outcome against the probability distribution which was priced in before the meeting.</li><li>It’s not an absolute but a relative assessment.</li><li>Yesterday, the Fed delivered a 50 bps rate hike and a balance sheet run-off schedule which closely met expectations but the press conference turned to surprise expectations on the dovish side - and it was a mistaken attempt at sounding dovish, in my opinion.</li></ul>

How do you assess whether the outcome of a Central Bank meeting was hawkish or dovish? Simple: you look at the delivered outcome against the probability distribution which was priced in before the meeting.It’s not an absolute but a relative assessment.Yesterday, the Fed delivered a 50 bps rate hike and a balance sheet run-off schedule which closely met expectations but the press conference turned to surprise expectations on the dovish side - and it was a mistaken attempt at sounding dovish, in my opinion.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, will head much lower </li>
<li>World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over next 2 years</li>
<li>Bond markets are already screaming a warning with 'death-cross' formation</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, will head much lower 
World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over next 2 years
Bond markets are already screaming a warning with 'death-cross' formation


<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, is heading much lower. Bear market is here</li>
<li>
Recession coming: some economies may even already be in recession </li>
<li>
Investor exposure to stocks too high and out-of-line with deteriorating economies</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity, the main driver of World asset markets, is heading much lower. Bear market is here

Recession coming: some economies may even already be in recession 

Investor exposure to stocks too high and out-of-line with deteriorating economies


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DXY bullish flat to see new chart highs as the Euro slips. USD set for gains in Asia but weak in EM. Euro re test of 1.08 in the cards.</li>
<li>USD/JPY remains bullish on a pullback in the 120 zone with bigger support at 118.50. 125/126 the cap/breakout point.</li>
<li>USD/KRW the new long USD entry with USD/TWD on track to reach 29. USD vs SGD and INR still favored longs. USD/THB top zone to build short.</li>
</ul>


DXY bullish flat to see new chart highs as the Euro slips. USD set for gains in Asia but weak in EM. Euro re test of 1.08 in the cards.
USD/JPY remains bullish on a pullback in the 120 zone with bigger support at 118.50. 125/126 the cap/breakout point.
USD/KRW the new long USD entry with USD/TWD on track to reach 29. USD vs SGD and INR still favored longs. USD/THB top zone to build short.


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Our updated analysis of the forthcoming French presidential election suggests that political data are clearly pointing to centre-right President Macron winning both the first and second rounds. </li>
<li>So while Macron is likely to win second term, opinion polls point to a smaller margin of victory than in 2017 when he beatLe Pen by 2 votes to 1 </li>
<li>The positive impact on the Euro and Eurozone equities is likely to be modest and short-lived, certainly compared to 2017.</li>
</ul>


Our updated analysis of the forthcoming French presidential election suggests that political data are clearly pointing to centre-right President Macron winning both the first and second rounds. 
So while Macron is likely to win second term, opinion polls point to a smaller margin of victory than in 2017 when he beatLe Pen by 2 votes to 1 
The positive impact on the Euro and Eurozone equities is likely to be modest and short-lived, certainly compared to 2017.


Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish

How do you assess whether the outcome of a Central Bank meeting was hawkish or dovish? Simple: you look at the delivered outcome against the...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 2)

Following Part 1 we dive-deeper into the bear case. The collapse in Central Bank liquidity and the warnings already signaled by bond markets spell...

Michael J. Howell

Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 1)

It's a bear market. We have we warning for several months that it is coming because of skidding Global Liquidity. But as we explain... it will get...

Michael J. Howell

USD Bull Versus Majors and in Asia

DXY bullish flat to see new chart highs as the Euro slips. USD set for gains in Asia but weak in EM. Euro re test of 1.08 in the cards.

Thomas Schroeder

Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin

Political data matter and clearly point to Macron winning French presidential election. Question is by what margin but his re-election will not...

Olivier Desbarres

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