ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Small-Caps in Indonesia have had a rough time of it over the past six months or so, and not necessarily because of deteriorating fundamentals. The key reason has been a number of mutual fund closures, as well as the simmering issue of State-owned Insurer Jiwasraya, which had a broad spectrum of small-cap exposure, not all of it high-quality. In fact, a number of stocks that the beleaguered insurer owned have been suspended on suspicion of manipulation by brokers at the behest of their client. 
The Jiawasraya situation will no doubt take some time to resolve and will likely involve some well-connected individuals, who will seek to avoid too much scrutiny. The OJK continues to crack-down on various "pump and dump" schemes that have become worryingly prevalent over the past couple of years. This situation has, however, seen a number of good quality companies being sold down either as funds have been shut down or for fear of a sell-down related to these issues. 
In this insight, we seek to highlight those Indonesian small-caps which continue to have a strong fundamental growth story along with good governance but which have been caught up in the backdraft of this small-cap maelstrom. The stocks we would highlight include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kino-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1083:1" rel="noopener">Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-selamat-sempurna-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10909:1" rel="noopener">Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integra-indocabinet-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27356:1" rel="noopener">Integra Indocabinet Tbk PT (WOOD IJ),</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sentul-city-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20589:1" rel="noopener">Sentul City (BKSL IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ).</a>

Small-Caps in Indonesia have had a rough time of it over the past six months or so, and not necessarily because of deteriorating fundamentals. The key reason has been a number of mutual fund closures, as well as the simmering issue of State-owned Insurer Jiwasraya, which had a broad spectrum of small-cap exposure, not all of it high-quality. In fact, a number of stocks that the beleaguered insurer owned have been suspended on suspicion of manipulation by brokers at the behest of their client. 
The Jiawasraya situation will no doubt take some time to resolve and will likely involve some well-connected individuals, who will seek to avoid too much scrutiny. The OJK continues to crack-down on various "pump and dump" schemes that have become worryingly prevalent over the past couple of years. This situation has, however, seen a number of good quality companies being sold down either as funds have been shut down or for fear of a sell-down related to these issues. 
In this insight, we seek to highlight those Indonesian small-caps which continue to have a strong fundamental growth story along with good governance but which have been caught up in the backdraft of this small-cap maelstrom. The stocks we would highlight include Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ),Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ),Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ),Integra Indocabinet Tbk PT (WOOD IJ),  Sentul City (BKSL IJ),Blue Bird (BIRD IJ), and BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ).

CrossASEAN Strategy - Small-Cap Quicksand Creates Opportunity

<div class="content-highlight">This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant Discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></div><h2>Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/open-omnibus-path-but-for-bills-dpr-dissuaded-from-jiwasraya-probe-us-journalist-detained" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36057" rel="noopener">Open Omnibus Path, but for Bills / DPR Dissuaded from Jiwasraya Probe / US Journalist Detained</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kevin-o-rourke" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060" rel="noopener">Kevin O’Rourke</a> comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/double-divergence-malaysia-and-thailand-mixed-signals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34871" rel="noopener">Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-jim-walker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628" rel="noopener">Dr. Jim Walker</a> revisits these two ASEAN markets as he finds some changes in direction afoot. <h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-retail-who-will-bite-the-tesco-lotus-bullet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35703" rel="noopener">Thai Retail - Who Will Bite the Tesco Lotus Bullet?</a>CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> examines the potential sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22187:1" rel="noopener">Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)</a>'s sales of its Thai and Malaysian assets.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/berli-jucker-bjc-tb-well-rounded-consumer-leader" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36029" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Well-Rounded Consumer Leader,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this leading Thai-listed consumer company following a call with management. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero-overbought-signals-is-this-peak-rakyat" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36071" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero: Overbought Signals: Is This Peak Rakyat?,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> looks at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-perser" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ)</a> following the very positive reaction to recent FY19 results. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kasikornbank-where-is-the-traction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36087" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank: Where Is the Traction?</a> Emerging Markets banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> examines revisits this leading Thai bank following recent results. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> recently reported FY19 results.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sgx-2q20-positive-trends-slow-acquisition-reinforces-strategy-inteqres-practical-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36037" rel="noopener">SGX 2Q20 - Positive Trends Slow, Acquisition Reinforces Strategy - Inteqres Practical Update,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mark-artherton-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7528" rel="noopener">Mark Artherton, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> following recent numbers. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-mall-and-commercial-reit-merger-it-s-big" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36002" rel="noopener">Capitaland Mall and Commercial REIT Merger - It's BIG</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> takes a close look at this ongoing Singapore REIT merger. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cmt-cct-merger-capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust-big-is-back" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36030" rel="noopener">CMT/CCT Merger (CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust): Big Is Back</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> also looks at this ongoing Singapore REIT merger. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cct-cmt-is-it-really-a-merger-of-equals-solving-cmt-s-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36033" rel="noopener">CCT+CMT: Is It Really a Merger of Equals? Solving CMT's Problem,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> zeros in on this Singapore REIT merger focusing on the rationale of the move from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1077:1" rel="noopener">Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP)'</a>s point of view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust-index-implications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36007" rel="noopener">CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust - Index Implications,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the implications of the for indices from this Singapore REIT merger. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-corp-ipo-valuation-palatable-at-the-low-end" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36008" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp IPO: Valuation Palatable at the Low-End</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> assesses the initial valuations for the IPO of this leading Thai retailer.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-corp-ipo-thailand-operations-weighed-down-vietnam-food-s-stellar-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36012" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp IPO - Thailand Operations Weighed Down Vietnam Food’s Stellar Performance,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> lays out his views on this very significant Thai Retail IPO. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-corp-ipo-proxy-trading-only-2-6-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36036" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp IPO - Proxy Trading Only 2.6% Higher,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> looks at the backdrop for the upcoming IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail (CRC TB).</a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-ipo-and-potential-changes-to-the-set50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35894" rel="noopener">Central Retail IPO and Potential Changes to the SET50 Index,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> assesses the impact of the listing on the SET50 Index. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/olam-international-to-split-the-business-into-two-separately-listed-entities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36017" rel="noopener">Olam International to Split the Business into Two Separately Listed Entities,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/oshadhi-kumarasiri" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3584" rel="noopener">Oshadhi Kumarasiri</a> investigates the upcoming split of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)'</a>s businesses. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rhb-bank-quiet-transformation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35817" rel="noopener">RHB Bank – Quiet Transformation,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisit one of Malaysia's leading banks and finds changes afoot. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wice-promising-earnings-growth-in-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36001" rel="noopener">WICE: Promising Earnings Growth in 2020,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> investigate this leading logistics player. <h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-35-kbank-s-burmese-toehold-tim-hortons-comes-to-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35849" rel="noopener">Snippets #35: KBANK's Burmese Toehold, Tim Hortons Comes to Thailand,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA,</a> zeros in on the five most interesting news/developments over the past week or so that could influence Thai equities. <h2>Credit Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-lippo-karawaci" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35969" rel="noopener">Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> takes a close look at 4Q19 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)</a> as well as recent marketing sales figures.

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant Discussions in ASEAN@SmartkarmaMacro InsightsIn Open Omnibus Path, but for Bills / DPR Dissuaded from Jiwasraya Probe / US Journalist Detained, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week.In Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals,Dr. Jim Walker revisits these two ASEAN markets as he finds some changes in direction afoot. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Thai Retail - Who Will Bite the Tesco Lotus Bullet?CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh examines the potential sale of Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)'s sales of its Thai and Malaysian assets.In Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Well-Rounded Consumer Leader,Angus Mackintosh revisits this leading Thai-listed consumer company following a call with management. In Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero: Overbought Signals: Is This Peak Rakyat?,Paul Hollingworth looks at Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ) following the very positive reaction to recent FY19 results. In Kasikornbank: Where Is the Traction? Emerging Markets banking specialist Paul Hollingworth examines revisits this leading Thai bank following recent results. Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) recently reported FY19 results.In SGX 2Q20 - Positive Trends Slow, Acquisition Reinforces Strategy - Inteqres Practical Update,Mark Artherton, CFA revisits SGX (SGX SP) following recent numbers. In Capitaland Mall and Commercial REIT Merger - It's BIG, Travis Lundy takes a close look at this ongoing Singapore REIT merger. In CMT/CCT Merger (CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust): Big Is BackArun George also looks at this ongoing Singapore REIT merger. In CCT+CMT: Is It Really a Merger of Equals? Solving CMT's Problem,Sumeet Singh zeros in on this Singapore REIT merger focusing on the rationale of the move from Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP)'s point of view. In CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust - Index Implications,Brian Freitas looks at the implications of the for indices from this Singapore REIT merger. In Central Retail Corp IPO: Valuation Palatable at the Low-End, Arun George assesses the initial valuations for the IPO of this leading Thai retailer.In Central Retail Corp IPO - Thailand Operations Weighed Down Vietnam Food’s Stellar Performance,Zhen Zhou, Toh lays out his views on this very significant Thai Retail IPO. In Central Retail Corp IPO - Proxy Trading Only 2.6% Higher,Zhen Zhou, Toh looks at the backdrop for the upcoming IPO of Central Retail (CRC TB).In Central Retail IPO and Potential Changes to the SET50 Index,Brian Freitas assesses the impact of the listing on the SET50 Index. In Olam International to Split the Business into Two Separately Listed Entities,Oshadhi Kumarasiri investigates the upcoming split of Olam International (OLAM SP)'s businesses. In RHB Bank – Quiet Transformation,Daniel Tabbush revisit one of Malaysia's leading banks and finds changes afoot. In WICE: Promising Earnings Growth in 2020, our friends at Country Group investigate this leading logistics player. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Snippets #35: KBANK's Burmese Toehold, Tim Hortons Comes to Thailand, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA, zeros in on the five most interesting news/developments over the past week or so that could influence Thai equities. Credit InsightsIn Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci,Trung Nguyen takes a close look at 4Q19 results from Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) as well as recent marketing sales figures.

The CNY Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai Retail, Bank Rakyat, and Singapore REITs

Indonesia

PT Eureka Prima Jakarta Tbk develops and sells real estates.

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Eureka Prima Jakarta (LCGP IJ)

CrossASEAN Strategy - Small-Cap Quicksand Creates Opportunity

Small-Caps in Indonesia have had a rough time of it over the past six months or so, and not necessarily because of deteriorating fundamentals. The...

Angus Mackintosh

The CNY Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai Retail, Bank Rakyat, and Singapore REITs

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)