Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bitcoin-on-balance-sheets-indirect-crypto-exposure-considerations-for-crypto-leery-esg-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52207" rel="noopener">Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors</a>. That trend is behind the topic of this report.Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without some risk.For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBT)</a>'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.

More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors. That trend is behind the topic of this report.Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without some risk.For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates Bitcoin (XBT)'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

This Insight is about a trainwreck, the head-on collision of two megatrends in investing: ESG, and cryptocurrencies. "Trainwreck," because the raging cryptocurrency/ESG debate has spiraled out of control and made absolute lunatics out of everyone, environmentalists and crypto-zealots alike.Cryptocurrency's environmental impact is not a recent epiphany. Back in 2009, Hal Finney (creator of Bitcoin's proof-of-work system, and even rumored to be the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto) tweeted, "Thinking about how to reduce CO2 emissions from widespread Bitcoin implementation."Prescient, but it didn't elicit a reaction because in 2009 few investors had even heard of Bitcoin and ESG. In 2021, however, Elon Musk's words are able to spark a firestorm because Bitcoin and ESG are now deeply ingrained in the collective investor psyche, and the zeitgeist.And Elon Musk's words sure did spark a firestorm.With this report, I hope to provide what is entirely absent in that firestorm – i.e., a comprehensive, rational, and balanced view of the multifaceted cryptocurrency/ESG relationships. Environmental, Social, and Governance. Including some issues that no one is talking about, but should be.

This Insight is about a trainwreck, the head-on collision of two megatrends in investing: ESG, and cryptocurrencies. "Trainwreck," because the raging cryptocurrency/ESG debate has spiraled out of control and made absolute lunatics out of everyone, environmentalists and crypto-zealots alike.Cryptocurrency's environmental impact is not a recent epiphany. Back in 2009, Hal Finney (creator of Bitcoin's proof-of-work system, and even rumored to be the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto) tweeted, "Thinking about how to reduce CO2 emissions from widespread Bitcoin implementation."Prescient, but it didn't elicit a reaction because in 2009 few investors had even heard of Bitcoin and ESG. In 2021, however, Elon Musk's words are able to spark a firestorm because Bitcoin and ESG are now deeply ingrained in the collective investor psyche, and the zeitgeist.And Elon Musk's words sure did spark a firestorm.With this report, I hope to provide what is entirely absent in that firestorm – i.e., a comprehensive, rational, and balanced view of the multifaceted cryptocurrency/ESG relationships. Environmental, Social, and Governance. Including some issues that no one is talking about, but should be.

ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space</li>
<li>Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively</li>
<li>We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently </li>
<li>After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff</li>
<li>Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs</li>
<li>Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month</li>
<li>Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.</div>


While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space
Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively
We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently 
After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff
Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs
Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month
Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.

TMI Snapshot:  Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Evaluate "what is Money?" How does one maintain purchasing power (PPS) over time</li>
<li>Est. Berkshire cash holdings have lost US$15.7Bn in PPS over past 12-years</li>
<li>Eschewing Gold, Buffet over the same period has foregone US$88.5Bn NPV</li>
<li>Historical Gold demand/supply dynamics </li>
<li>Universal decline in PPS of Fiat currencies</li>
<li> GBP and USD have only retained 7.2% and 13.3% of their PPS over past 50-years</li>
<li>Rise of negative rates means that Gold is a form of cost free PPS</li>
<li>Crypto-currencies have no external assets to under-write their existence</li>
<li>Durability and non-counterfeitability preclude crypto-currencies as LT monetary mediums</li>
<li>Therefore, crypto-currency valuation revolves around personal view</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US):</a> Recommendation: BUY </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandstorm-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25752:1" rel="noopener">Sandstorm Gold (SSL CN):</a> Recommendation: BUY </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a>: Recommendation SELL</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ethereum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25896:1" rel="noopener">Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY):</a> Recommendation SELL</li>
</ul>


Evaluate "what is Money?" How does one maintain purchasing power (PPS) over time
Est. Berkshire cash holdings have lost US$15.7Bn in PPS over past 12-years
Eschewing Gold, Buffet over the same period has foregone US$88.5Bn NPV
Historical Gold demand/supply dynamics 
Universal decline in PPS of Fiat currencies
 GBP and USD have only retained 7.2% and 13.3% of their PPS over past 50-years
Rise of negative rates means that Gold is a form of cost free PPS
Crypto-currencies have no external assets to under-write their existence
Durability and non-counterfeitability preclude crypto-currencies as LT monetary mediums
Therefore, crypto-currency valuation revolves around personal view

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US): Recommendation: BUY 

Sandstorm Gold (SSL CN): Recommendation: BUY 
Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY): Recommendation SELL
Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY): Recommendation SELL


Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

The strength of the dollar and the US-China trade war have taken their toll on the world economy The erosion in global US dollar purchasing power is translating in weaker demand for Asian exports. The easing of US-China trade tensions following the G20 meeting is welcome. However, of equal importance is where the US dollar heads from here. The biggest risk here is that the ECB and the BoJ expand extraordinary monetary policy measures, and in doing so spark another round of competitive devaluation by non-US dollar areas and a further erosion in global US dollar purchasing power

The strength of the dollar and the US-China trade war have taken their toll on the world economy The erosion in global US dollar purchasing power is translating in weaker demand for Asian exports. The easing of US-China trade tensions following the G20 meeting is welcome. However, of equal importance is where the US dollar heads from here. The biggest risk here is that the ECB and the BoJ expand extraordinary monetary policy measures, and in doing so spark another round of competitive devaluation by non-US dollar areas and a further erosion in global US dollar purchasing power

United States

Ethereum is an open-source, public, blockchain-based distributed computing platform featuring smart contract (scripting) functionality. It provides a decentralized Turing-complete virtual machine, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which can execute scripts using an international network of public nodes. Ethereum also provides a cryptocurrency token called "ether", which can be transferred between accounts and used to compensate participant nodes for computations performed. "Gas", an internal transaction pricing mechanism, is used to mitigate spam and allocate resources on the network.

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Ethereum (XETUSD CURNCY)

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Bitcoin holdings by issuers and investors is driving crypto custody demand. Big banks are stepping. A big opportunity, but some ESG investors might...

Kyle Rudden

ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans

Elon sparked a firestorm over Bitcoin's climate impacts. Problem is, it's all "greenwashing" by crypto-zealots or "brownwashing" by...

Kyle Rudden

TMI Snapshot: Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

We text-mine media coverage of cryptocurrencies to quantify key sub-themes; institutional adoption sentiment has remained positive throughout the...

Elan Gore

Gold Vs Cryptocurrencies

Evaluate "what is Money?" How does one maintain purchasing power (PPS) over time Est. Berkshire cash holdings have lost US$15.7Bn in PPS over past...

Gaius King

Trade War Takes Its Toll

The strength of the dollar and the US-China trade war have taken their toll on the world economy The erosion in global US dollar purchasing power...

Sharmila Whelan

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