Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The most powerful delta is well in place for credit costs. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee income, contained costs and less provision costs.

The most powerful delta is well in place for credit costs. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee income, contained costs and less provision costs. 

There are few banks to compare with the 37x rise in provision expenses at this large Austrian and Eastern European bank, which most likely paves the way for a magnificent decline during the current year.

There are few banks to compare with the 37x rise in provision expenses at this large Austrian and Eastern European bank, which most likely paves the way for a magnificent decline during the current year.

Erste Bank – Radically Higher Provisions Can Turn Down Magnificently

Austria

Erste Group Bank AG is a global bank. The Bank accepts deposits as well as carries on activities in the retail, corporate, and investment banking sectors. Erste group has main operations in Europe, with headquarters in Wien, Austria.

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Erste Group Bank Ag (EBS AV)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Erste Bank – Venn Union of Delta

The most powerful delta is well in place. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee...

Daniel Tabbush

Erste Bank – Radically Higher Provisions Can Turn Down Magnificently

EBS saw its provision expenses rise 37x in FY20 compared with FY19. There are few that compare. The implications are positive for its current year...

Daniel Tabbush

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