ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada</a> booked a strong performance in 3Q2024 but 4Q2024 is likely to be the peak seasonal quarter for sales, even with no sales of iPhone 16.</li>
<li>Chinese brands have accelerated the availability of affordable handsets, which should help to drive sales. JD Sports will be consolidated in December and Grand Lucky is performing well. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> will continue to expand Erajaya Digitial in 2025, Erablue stores already be at 76 stores by November. Valuations remain attractive along with a strong growth profile. </li>
</ul>



Erajaya Swasembada booked a strong performance in 3Q2024 but 4Q2024 is likely to be the peak seasonal quarter for sales, even with no sales of iPhone 16.
Chinese brands have accelerated the availability of affordable handsets, which should help to drive sales. JD Sports will be consolidated in December and Grand Lucky is performing well. 

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) will continue to expand Erajaya Digitial in 2025, Erablue stores already be at 76 stores by November. Valuations remain attractive along with a strong growth profile. 


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Set up for a Stronger 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> booked a solid set of 1H2024 results driven by the availability of affordable handsets, with volumes driving growth despite lower prices. </li>
<li>The company's Erablue consumer electronics JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobile-world-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22638:1" rel="noopener">Mobile World Investment (MWG VN)</a> now has 61 outlets and is set to break even in 2024, with 80 stores expected by year-end. </li>
<li>The other growth drivers will come from private-label accessories and its Grand Lucky supermarket expansion. Valuations look attractive will the company trading on a 6x forward PER multiple.</li>
</ul>



Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) booked a solid set of 1H2024 results driven by the availability of affordable handsets, with volumes driving growth despite lower prices. 
The company's Erablue consumer electronics JV with Mobile World Investment (MWG VN) now has 61 outlets and is set to break even in 2024, with 80 stores expected by year-end. 
The other growth drivers will come from private-label accessories and its Grand Lucky supermarket expansion. Valuations look attractive will the company trading on a 6x forward PER multiple.


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Affordability Rocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ERAA released its 2Q24 results, with revenue reaching IDR16.5 tn, slightly down by -1.1% QoQ but surging by +16.8% YoY (vs IDR14.1 tn in 2Q23).</li><li>This brought its 1H24 revenue to IDR33.1 tn, or rose by +14.6% YoY, which was in-line with our/cons. estimates, reaching 49.2%/51.3% of FY24E targets.</li><li>On an annual basis, the computer and electronic devices segment led growth by +40.7% YoY, followed by accessories and others at +20.0% YoY, and cellular phones and tablets at +16.1% YoY. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ERAA released its 2Q24 results, with revenue reaching IDR16.5 tn, slightly down by -1.1% QoQ but surging by +16.8% YoY (vs IDR14.1 tn in 2Q23).This brought its 1H24 revenue to IDR33.1 tn, or rose by +14.6% YoY, which was in-line with our/cons. estimates, reaching 49.2%/51.3% of FY24E targets.On an annual basis, the computer and electronic devices segment led growth by +40.7% YoY, followed by accessories and others at +20.0% YoY, and cellular phones and tablets at +16.1% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA IJ) - Handset Volume On-Track

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.</li>
<li>The company's buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobile-world-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22638:1" rel="noopener">Mobile World</a>, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya</a> will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.
The company's buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with Mobile World, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.

Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

Indonesia

PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk distributes and retails cellular telephones.  The Company is licensed to distribute international brands of cell phones, and operates a chain of retail shops in Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)