Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are plenty of concerns with the outlook for lenders in Canada. Real GDP is weakening for the past few quarters, and where domestic credit growth is decelerating fast. Some economists believe the former causes the latter, although we believe credit growth is a key driver of economic growth. In either case, the outlook is not wholly positive for Canada. If though credit growth is a lead indicator of what to expect with economic growth, we can expect further deceleration.  This can then weigh on bad loan formation and worsening net interest income growth.

There are plenty of concerns with the outlook for lenders in Canada. Real GDP is weakening for the past few quarters, and where domestic credit growth is decelerating fast. Some economists believe the former causes the latter, although we believe credit growth is a key driver of economic growth. In either case, the outlook is not wholly positive for Canada. If though credit growth is a lead indicator of what to expect with economic growth, we can expect further deceleration.  This can then weigh on bad loan formation and worsening net interest income growth. 

Canada Banks - Weakening Indicators Suggest Downturn in Credit Metrics

While we hardly follow Canada banks even in passing, we are grateful to fellow contributor, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/36" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:36">Charles De Trenck</a>, for pointing us in this direction.We all know that a banking crisis can start or become a lot worse, as liquidity dries up. In Canada, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24115" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24115:1">Home Capital Group Inc. (HCG CN)</a> is in the throes of its own liquidity crisis, with depositors withdrawing their monies as they sense heightened risk. This is where traditional banks can be caught out like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24116" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24116:1">Equitable Group Inc. (EQB CN)</a>, as they often…

While we hardly follow Canada banks even in passing, we are grateful to fellow contributor, Charles De Trenck, for pointing us in this direction.We all know that a banking crisis can start or become a lot worse, as liquidity dries up. In Canada, Home Capital Group Inc. (HCG CN) is in the throes of its own liquidity crisis, with depositors withdrawing their monies as they sense heightened risk. This is where traditional banks can be caught out like Equitable Group Inc. (EQB CN), as they often…

Canada

Equitable Group Inc., through its subsidiary, Equitable Bank, provides various financial services to retail and commercial customers in Canada. Its deposit products include guaranteed investment certificates, high interest savings accounts, and institutional deposit notes. The company also provides single family lending products, such as mortgages for owner occupied and investment properties comprising detached and semi-detached houses, townhouses, and condos; and commercial lending products that include mortgages on commercial properties comprising mixed-use, multi-unit residential, shopping plaza, professional office, and industrial properties. In addition, it offers securitization financing products comprising insured mortgages on multi-unit and single family residential properties funded through securitization programs. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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Equitable Group Inc (EQB CN)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Canada Banks - Weakening Indicators Suggest Downturn in Credit Metrics

There are plenty of concerns with the outlook for lenders in Canada. Real GDP is weakening for the past few quarters, and where domestic credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Funding Crisis in Canada Banking?

While we hardly follow Canada banks even in passing, we are grateful to fellow contributor, Charles De Trenck, for pointing us in this direction.We...

Daniel Tabbush

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