Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Nomura Next F Jpx Nikkei 400 / Event-Driven

On August 7th after the close, the Japan Exchange Group announced the results of its annual review of JPX Nikkei 400 Index Components, resulting in 43 Inclusions and 42 names to be removed.&nbsp;The 42 Exclusions made up a combined weight of 2.7% of the index and as of the close, the 43&nbsp;Inclusions made up a combined expected weight of 5.1%. Toshiba (6502 JP) will be&nbsp;removed from the index because of its recent accounting scandal. TEPCO (9501 JP) was due to enter the index because of its 3-year average ROE and gain in the rankings but when domestic brokers published their expected index change lists in July, domestically there was a critical outcry regarding TEPCO's potential inclusion because of its recent past (and perhaps because of the fact that its E has been crushed and R artificially inflated by government injections and policies).Based on the particular makeup of the universe and relatively strict adherence to the rules and rankings, it is relatively easy to calculate - with a high degree of probability - what the changes in the index will be&nbsp;and last year's review showed that people had OVER-pre-positioned. This year, an arithmetically-weighted basket of the Inclusion Names outperformed its counterpart of Exclusion Names by 5% in the two months to Friday (counting TEPCO and Toshiba the outperformance would have been even higher).CONCLUSIONS<ul><li>As broad rebalances go, this is not terribly large.&nbsp;Based on calculations below, it would be reasonable to expect the total amount tracking the index to be about 3.2-4.0trln yen - not a huge amount. Based on that there would be approximately 240bn yen to buy and 240bn yen to sell (roughlly half exclusion half funding) at current prices.&nbsp;</li><li>The maximum impact in either direction is about 6 days of ADV but the sum total to trade on those two names is about $20mm.&nbsp;</li><li>As with most broad rebalances which are easily predictable, the best way to trade this is perhaps&nbsp;to fade the announcement. It has already moved several percent so there will be unwinds.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>This is STILL a ridiculous index, designed to turn over 10% of its components a year, to over-weight 'new economy' businesses (the more expensive the higher the weight), to penalize those who ultimately become highly successful (market weight cap) and to sell low buy high in doing so (Sony got kicked out a couple of years ago; who will bet against it being put back in within 2yrs at 2-3x the price it got kicked out at?)</li><li>More detail - with tables and rankings - below the fold.</li></ul>

On August 7th after the close, the Japan Exchange Group announced the results of its annual review of JPX Nikkei 400 Index Components, resulting in 43 Inclusions and 42 names to be removed.&nbsp;The 42 Exclusions made up a combined weight of 2.7% of the index and as of the close, the 43&nbsp;Inclusions made up a combined expected weight of 5.1%. Toshiba (6502 JP) will be&nbsp;removed from the index because of its recent accounting scandal. TEPCO (9501 JP) was due to enter the index because of its 3-year average ROE and gain in the rankings but when domestic brokers published their expected index change lists in July, domestically there was a critical outcry regarding TEPCO's potential inclusion because of its recent past (and perhaps because of the fact that its E has been crushed and R artificially inflated by government injections and policies).Based on the particular makeup of the universe and relatively strict adherence to the rules and rankings, it is relatively easy to calculate - with a high degree of probability - what the changes in the index will be&nbsp;and last year's review showed that people had OVER-pre-positioned. This year, an arithmetically-weighted basket of the Inclusion Names outperformed its counterpart of Exclusion Names by 5% in the two months to Friday (counting TEPCO and Toshiba the outperformance would have been even higher).CONCLUSIONSAs broad rebalances go, this is not terribly large.&nbsp;Based on calculations below, it would be reasonable to expect the total amount tracking the index to be about 3.2-4.0trln yen - not a huge amount. Based on that there would be approximately 240bn yen to buy and 240bn yen to sell (roughlly half exclusion half funding) at current prices.&nbsp;The maximum impact in either direction is about 6 days of ADV but the sum total to trade on those two names is about $20mm.&nbsp;As with most broad rebalances which are easily predictable, the best way to trade this is perhaps&nbsp;to fade the announcement. It has already moved several percent so there will be unwinds.&nbsp;&nbsp;This is STILL a ridiculous index, designed to turn over 10% of its components a year, to over-weight 'new economy' businesses (the more expensive the higher the weight), to penalize those who ultimately become highly successful (market weight cap) and to sell low buy high in doing so (Sony got kicked out a couple of years ago; who will bet against it being put back in within 2yrs at 2-3x the price it got kicked out at?)More detail - with tables and rankings - below the fold.

AUG 2015 JPX NIKKEI 400 - Rebalance Announced -  How Much Tracks?  What Are Flows?

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

NIPPON GAS CO., LTD. provides LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), gas related apparatus, gas air conditioning equipment, and gas supplying work.  The Company also operates real estate business.

ITOCHU ENEX CO., LTD. distributes various kinds of fuel products such as oil, gasoline, and liquefied petroleum gas.  The Company, affiliated with Itochu Corp, manages many gas stations as well as convenience stores.  Itochu Enex also provides catalog sales of household goods.

MITSUUROKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO., LTD. wholesales a variety of fuel products such as liquefied petroleum gas, coal, and briquettes products.  The Company also sells gas appliances and oil-heating equipment.  MITSUUROKO operates office leasing business as well.

SAN-AI OIL CO., LTD. primarily wholesales petroleum and LP gas nationwide.  The Company also supplies fuels for aircrafts at Haneda Airport.  San-Ai Oil has business divisions including industry energy, gas, chemical and research, and business development.

SALA CORPORATION is a holding company which operates and manages its subsidiaries.  The Company provides energy supply and solution, and facility management services through its subsidiaries.  Other services include infrastructure development, animals' health care, auto services, and logistic business.

SINANEN HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is a fuel distributor specializing in petroleum products. The Company diversifies into briquettes, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products.  Sinanen also sells cooling/heating equipment and hot water supply system as well as operates real estate businesses.

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

APA Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of oil and gas properties. APA serves clients worldwide.

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

EQT Corporation is an integrated energy company with emphasis on Appalachian area natural-gas supply, transmission and distribution. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offer natural gas products to wholesale and retail customers.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation produces oil and natural gas. The Company's operations are focused on discovering, developing, and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the United States.

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk generates electricity and steam.  The Company owns  and operates coal- and gas-fired plants.

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

AUG 2015 JPX NIKKEI 400 - Rebalance Announced - How Much Tracks? What Are Flows?

On August 7th after the close, the Japan Exchange Group announced the results of its annual review of JPX Nikkei 400 Index Components, resulting in...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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