Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Global GDP growth prospects have faded in the past several years, weakening the overall outlook for highly cyclical cement demand and resulting in largely stagnant cement company share prices since early 2015. Yet a focus on weakening global growth overlooks divergent trajectories at the country level, which is the more relevant way to evaluate cement company prospects given the highly local nature of their business. But with globe-spanning operations covering up to 100 countries, this can be a daunting task. We introduce a new methodology to forecast country-level cement demand, which informs a portfolio-level demand outlook for each cement company we cover.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22701:1">Cemex SAB De CV (ADR) (CX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21883" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21883:1">CRH PLC (CRH ID)</a>are best positioned amid weaker global economic growth, though only Cemex trades at a discount to intrinsic value—about 33%. Cemex should enjoy strong volume and price growth amid improving U.S. residential construction activity and rising Mexican infrastructure investment. For CRH, the excellent long-term outlook for Philippines cement demand buoys the company's overall prospects, though we consider shares fairly valued. We expect a heavy European presence will weigh on growth for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21645" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21645:1">HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GR)</a> and LafargeHolcim and consider both stocks fairly valued.Analyst: Kristoffer Inton &amp; Daniel Rohr

Global GDP growth prospects have faded in the past several years, weakening the overall outlook for highly cyclical cement demand and resulting in largely stagnant cement company share prices since early 2015. Yet a focus on weakening global growth overlooks divergent trajectories at the country level, which is the more relevant way to evaluate cement company prospects given the highly local nature of their business. But with globe-spanning operations covering up to 100 countries, this can be a daunting task. We introduce a new methodology to forecast country-level cement demand, which informs a portfolio-level demand outlook for each cement company we cover.Cemex SAB De CV (ADR) (CX US) and CRH PLC (CRH ID)are best positioned amid weaker global economic growth, though only Cemex trades at a discount to intrinsic value—about 33%. Cemex should enjoy strong volume and price growth amid improving U.S. residential construction activity and rising Mexican infrastructure investment. For CRH, the excellent long-term outlook for Philippines cement demand buoys the company's overall prospects, though we consider shares fairly valued. We expect a heavy European presence will weigh on growth for HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GR) and LafargeHolcim and consider both stocks fairly valued.Analyst: Kristoffer Inton &amp; Daniel Rohr

Global Cement Outlook: Geographic Mix Makes Cemex Our Top Pick

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers. Trump says he will boost U.S. economic growth to 3.5% per annum, cut taxes and regulation, lift restrictions on energy investment--particularly for fossil fuels--and end offshoring. There are some left-field ideas too, particularly around trade and protectionism. The most important policy for commodity producers is the promise to invest $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next 10 years.U.S.-based steelmakers are likely to benefit. Trump says he wants the steel for backbone of the infrastructure to be American. We expect U.S. steel makers to benefit from both higher volumes and margins, with unit costs to benefit from increased plant utilisation. Some of the benefit is likely to be passed on to the price of raw materials-- scrap and U.S. domestically produced iron ore and coking coal.We do not expect a meaningful change to global demand for commodities given the small role that the U.S. plays in a China-dominated market. As such, we do not plan any changes to our price forecasts for iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, or uranium. We maintain our fair value estimates for almost all our global mining coverage (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Vale, Anglo American, Glencore, Teck Resources, and Cameco).Analyst: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers. Trump says he will boost U.S. economic growth to 3.5% per annum, cut taxes and regulation, lift restrictions on energy investment--particularly for fossil fuels--and end offshoring. There are some left-field ideas too, particularly around trade and protectionism. The most important policy for commodity producers is the promise to invest $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next 10 years.U.S.-based steelmakers are likely to benefit. Trump says he wants the steel for backbone of the infrastructure to be American. We expect U.S. steel makers to benefit from both higher volumes and margins, with unit costs to benefit from increased plant utilisation. Some of the benefit is likely to be passed on to the price of raw materials-- scrap and U.S. domestically produced iron ore and coking coal.We do not expect a meaningful change to global demand for commodities given the small role that the U.S. plays in a China-dominated market. As such, we do not plan any changes to our price forecasts for iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, or uranium. We maintain our fair value estimates for almost all our global mining coverage (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Vale, Anglo American, Glencore, Teck Resources, and Cameco).Analyst: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

U.S. Steel Makers to Benefit From Trump Stimulus but Market Draws Long Bow With Optimism for Miners

Switzerland

Ems-Chemie Holding AG manufactures and markets performance polymers, high-grade chemical intermediates, fine chemicals, and protective bonding, coating and sealing products.  The Company supplies its products to the automotive, transportation, and textile industries.

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Ems-Chemie Holding Ag (EMSN SW)

Global Cement Outlook: Geographic Mix Makes Cemex Our Top Pick

Global GDP growth prospects have faded in the past several years, weakening the overall outlook for highly cyclical cement demand and resulting in...

Morningstar, Inc.

U.S. Steel Makers to Benefit From Trump Stimulus but Market Draws Long Bow With Optimism for Miners

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers....

Morningstar, Inc.

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