Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> is a monopoly in the Philippines, with over 95% of the gin market. It has a 10 Revenue CAGR of 14%. </li>
<li>The company has experienced margin expansion due to premiumization and operating leverage on SG&amp;A, the former of which is likely to continue in the future with new premium gin launches.</li>
<li>There is value in the name trading at 7x PE, with &gt;20% of the market cap in cash and a 7.3% dividend yield predicated on a 50% payout ratio. </li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the Philippines, with over 95% of the gin market. It has a 10 Revenue CAGR of 14%. 
The company has experienced margin expansion due to premiumization and operating leverage on SG&amp;A, the former of which is likely to continue in the future with new premium gin launches.
There is value in the name trading at 7x PE, with &gt;20% of the market cap in cash and a 7.3% dividend yield predicated on a 50% payout ratio. 


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Structural Growth Name 7x PE, 20% of Mkt Cap in Cash & 7.5% Div Yield

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a> currently fails the liquidity test and could be removed from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-straits-times-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35880:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and could be added to the ETF. FCT has a 6% higher market cap compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam (OLG SP)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate trackers will need to buy 5 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> and sell over 37 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Emperador (EMI SP) currently fails the liquidity test and could be removed from the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) in March.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and could be added to the ETF. FCT has a 6% higher market cap compared to Olam (OLG SP).
We estimate trackers will need to buy 5 days of ADV in Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) and sell over 37 days of ADV in Emperador (EMI SP). 


STTF Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in March

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 184% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 21%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 184% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 21%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stock remains, 11 stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 128% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 59%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stock remains, 11 stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 128% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 59%


Philippines

Emperador, Inc. operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through its subsidiary, produces and markets brandy.

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Emperador (EMI SP)

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Structural Growth Name 7x PE, 20% of Mkt Cap in Cash & 7.5% Div Yield

There is value in Ginebra San Miguel ( GSMI PM ) trading at 7x PE, with >20% of the market cap in cash and a 7.3% dividend yield predicated on a...

Sameer Taneja

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STTF Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in March

Emperador currently fails liquidity and could be deleted from the STTF in March. Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) is a potential inclusion. There is...

Brian Freitas

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 43

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stock remains, 11 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

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