Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The sharp price drops experienced by the Adani Group companies have resulted in a negative change in index flow expectations for some names.</li>
<li>However, some Adani Group companies could be experiencing positive index flows in the June 2023 rebalance due to some peculiar derivative-linkage requirements in the index methodology.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.
The sharp price drops experienced by the Adani Group companies have resulted in a negative change in index flow expectations for some names.
However, some Adani Group companies could be experiencing positive index flows in the June 2023 rebalance due to some peculiar derivative-linkage requirements in the index methodology.


Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> could be added and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> could be deleted from the SENSEX Index. There could be multiple changes for BSE 100, 200, and 500.</li>
<li>Below is a look at our estimated rankings for potential ADDs/DELs, their recent price performance vs peers, and potential trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could be added and Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) could be deleted from the SENSEX Index. There could be multiple changes for BSE 100, 200, and 500.
Below is a look at our estimated rankings for potential ADDs/DELs, their recent price performance vs peers, and potential trading opportunities.


S&P BSE/​​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Chola Securities

Chola Wealth Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum powder, cooling oil, pain balm and pain reliever. Emami's power brands such as Navratna Oil, Boroplus Cream, Zandu &amp; MenthoPlus Balm, Fair &amp; Handsome, Boroplus Powder, Navratna Cool Talc, Fast Relief, SonaChandi &amp; Zandu accounts for 75% of company's sales. Emami sales have grown at a CAGR of 38.5% (FY2010-20)....<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum powder, cooling oil, pain balm and pain reliever. Emami's power brands such as Navratna Oil, Boroplus Cream, Zandu &amp; MenthoPlus Balm, Fair &amp; Handsome, Boroplus Powder, Navratna Cool Talc, Fast Relief, SonaChandi &amp; Zandu accounts for 75% of company's sales. Emami sales have grown at a CAGR of 38.5% (FY2010-20)....Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Emami: Top Line Driven by Domestic and International Business; E-Commerce Segment Driving Growth

India

Emami Limited develops and distributes personal, beauty, and healthcare products in India and other countries.  The Company manufactures herbal and Ayurvedic products, including antiseptic cream, prickly heat powder, pain balm, and cool oil.

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Emami Ltd (HMN IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

Based on current data, I do not see any changes for SENSEX. I see 6 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 with Adani Names involved in both sides and I see 3 ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

I see one change for SENSEX, four changes for BSE 100, and three changes for BSE 200 based on the latest available data. There could be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Emami: Top Line Driven by Domestic and International Business; E-Commerce Segment Driving Growth

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum...

Chola Wealth Direct

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Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

Based on current data, I do not see any changes for SENSEX. I see 6 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 with Adani Names involved in both sides and I see 3 ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P BSE/​​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

I see one change for SENSEX, four changes for BSE 100, and three changes for BSE 200 based on the latest available data. There could be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Emami: Top Line Driven by Domestic and International Business; E-Commerce Segment Driving Growth

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum...

Chola Wealth Direct

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions