Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains appropriate. We elaborate below and also highlight some developments we are watching that could alter our outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Health Care: Restaurants, Fast Food, Small-Cap, Casual Dining, and Hospitals.

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains appropriate. We elaborate below and also highlight some developments we are watching that could alter our outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Health Care: Restaurants, Fast Food, Small-Cap, Casual Dining, and Hospitals.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Also Extended Near-Term

This market is still fighting an uphill battle following the S&amp;P 500's breakdown below its 200-day moving average - a level that is now acting as formidable resistance. Our outlook remains extremely cautious due to overhead supply and the additional themes highlighted within this report.  There are a few bright spots, also in today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Communications and Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

This market is still fighting an uphill battle following the S&amp;P 500's breakdown below its 200-day moving average - a level that is now acting as formidable resistance. Our outlook remains extremely cautious due to overhead supply and the additional themes highlighted within this report.  There are a few bright spots, also in today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Communications and Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

U.S. Equity Update: Internals Deteriorating, Banks & Semis Have Broken Down.

Today's key points:<ul>
<li>Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.</li>
<li>Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.</li>
<li>Railroad related names are breaking out.</li>
<li>We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.</li>
</ul>Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

Today's key points:
Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.
Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.
Railroad related names are breaking out.
We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.
Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

United States

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates a restaurant chain. El Pollo Loco Holdings provides services across the United States.

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El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO US)

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Also Extended Near-Term

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Update: Internals Deteriorating, Banks & Semis Have Broken Down.

This market is still fighting an uphill battle following the S&P 500's breakdown below its 200-day moving average - a level that is now acting...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Today's key points: Property & Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts. Airlines are staging price and SR...

Vermilion Research

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