Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.</li>
<li>For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.</li>
<li>Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.
For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.
Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

<ul>
<li>Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth to ¥767B in H1FY24, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY.</li>
<li>Generic competition in Lexiscan impacted topline. Increase in SG&amp;A expenses related to new drug launch and higher amortization of intangible assets, pulled down the operating as well as net profit.</li>
<li>Astellas has downwardly revised FY24 forecasts for profit items by more than 50% after taking into consideration the increases in higher expenses.</li>
</ul>


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth to ¥767B in H1FY24, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY.
Generic competition in Lexiscan impacted topline. Increase in SG&amp;A expenses related to new drug launch and higher amortization of intangible assets, pulled down the operating as well as net profit.
Astellas has downwardly revised FY24 forecasts for profit items by more than 50% after taking into consideration the increases in higher expenses.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.</li>
<li>If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.</li>
<li>Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

Japan

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.

Arun George

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

In H1FY24, Astellas Pharma reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY. The...

Tina Banerjee

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

Market Reversal Matrix (MRM)'s analysis of the Nikkei 225 WEEKLY support levels + probability of trend reversal for the coming weeks, in case the...

Nico Rosti

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

​Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.

Arun George

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Underwhelming H1 Result; Massive Cut in FY24 Profit Guidance

In H1FY24, Astellas Pharma reported just 0.6% YoY revenue growth, while operating profit plunged 57% YoY and net profit decreased 67% YoY. The...

Tina Banerjee

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

Market Reversal Matrix (MRM)'s analysis of the Nikkei 225 WEEKLY support levels + probability of trend reversal for the coming weeks, in case the...

Nico Rosti

Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...