Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Core coverage <strong>– relative valuations </strong>
</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/367/original/core%20coverage.PNG?1523424273" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="49367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Price as on March 26, 2018<br>*Financial year of Otsula, Chugai and KHK ends in December</div><h2><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747">Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP)</a> </strong></h2><p>(NB: Pre-Shire announcement | Pro-Forma analysis to be published shortly) <br>OW | CMP ¥ 5,550| TP ¥ 6,600</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Key drivers / highlights</strong></td>
<td><ul><li>Currently marketed drugs including <strong>Entyvio </strong>(vedolizumab, in-house), <strong>Ninlaro </strong>(ixazomib,in-house), <strong>Trintellix</strong> (vortioxetine, co-develop with Lundbeck) &amp; <strong>Takecab </strong>(vonoprazan, developed in-house) to drive topline over…</li></ul></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

Core coverage – relative valuations 
Price as on March 26, 2018 *Financial year of Otsula, Chugai and KHK ends in DecemberTakeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) (NB: Pre-Shire announcement | Pro-Forma analysis to be published shortly)  OW | CMP ¥ 5,550| TP ¥ 6,600

Key drivers / highlights
Currently marketed drugs including Entyvio (vedolizumab, in-house), Ninlaro (ixazomib,in-house), Trintellix (vortioxetine, co-develop with Lundbeck) &amp; Takecab (vonoprazan, developed in-house) to drive topline over…



Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared the average Target Price given by each group for companies with 2 or more Analysts with coverage.</p><h2>Japanese Bullish Side....</h2><p>We then screened for names with greater than 20% (absolute) difference in upside from the current target price. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> tops the list with a 44% difference in upside from the current price. Japanese brokers are…</p>

We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared the average Target Price given by each group for companies with 2 or more Analysts with coverage.Japanese Bullish Side....We then screened for names with greater than 20% (absolute) difference in upside from the current target price. Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) tops the list with a 44% difference in upside from the current price. Japanese brokers are…

Which Names Are the Japanese Brokers More Bullish / Bearish On....

<p>We looked back over the last 16 years and found that names that are down in the first 11 months tend to outperform in December. To calculate the information coefficient (IC) we only used names that were down in the first 11 months. That way we eliminate names that were up in the first 11 month and went down in December. We did not want those names to affect the IC calculations for this exercise.  </p><p>When we compared the first 11 month performance to December performance we got an average IC of…</p>

We looked back over the last 16 years and found that names that are down in the first 11 months tend to outperform in December. To calculate the information coefficient (IC) we only used names that were down in the first 11 months. That way we eliminate names that were up in the first 11 month and went down in December. We did not want those names to affect the IC calculations for this exercise.  When we compared the first 11 month performance to December performance we got an average IC of…

Names Down in the First 11 Months Tend to Go up in Japan.....

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li><strong>Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society ages</strong><ul><li>The revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in 2016, primarily due to rising sales to domestic healthcare service providers.</li></ul></li><li><strong>Positive outlook clouded by government policies aimed at containing health costs</strong><ul><li>The industry’s value growth potential will be clouded by rising pricing pressures both from government policies, and rising consumption share of generic drugs.</li></ul></li></ul>

Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society agesThe revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in 2016, primarily due to rising sales to domestic healthcare service providers.Positive outlook clouded by government policies aimed at containing health costsThe industry’s value growth potential will be clouded by rising pricing pressures both from government policies, and rising consumption share of generic drugs.

Industrial Capsule: Pharmaceuticals in Japan

Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

<p>We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…</p>

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

Japan

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)

Japan Pharmaceutical - Sector Overview

Core coverage – relative valuations Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) (NB: Pre-Shire announcement | Pro-Forma analysis to be published...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Which Names Are the Japanese Brokers More Bullish / Bearish On....

We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared...

Custom Products Group

Names Down in the First 11 Months Tend to Go up in Japan.....

We looked back over the last 16 years and found that names that are down in the first 11 months tend to outperform in December. To calculate the...

Custom Products Group

Industrial Capsule: Pharmaceuticals in Japan

Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society agesThe revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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