Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Dr Arthur van Benthem

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the Environmental Protection Agency, scrapping the Paris Climate Accord, repealing the Clean Power Plan, relaxing auto emissions standards, increasing coal production, weakening the Endangered Species Act, and on and on. While Trump claims to have an “open mind” on climate, the transition at the EPA is led by Myron Ebell, a science denier who believes that free…

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the Environmental Protection Agency, scrapping the Paris Climate Accord, repealing the Clean Power Plan, relaxing auto emissions standards, increasing coal production, weakening the Endangered Species Act, and on and on. While Trump claims to have an “open mind” on climate, the transition at the EPA is led by Myron Ebell, a science denier who believes that free…

Time for Corporate America to Stand up for the Environment

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

United States

Dril-Quip, Inc. designs and manufactures offshore drilling and production equipment.  The Company's equipment consists of subsea, surface, and offshore rig equipment for use by oil and gas companies in offshore areas throughout the world.  Dril-Quip provides installation and reconditioning services, and also rents running tools.

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Dril Quip Inc (DRQ US)

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength...

Vermilion Research

Time for Corporate America to Stand up for the Environment

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the...

Dr Arthur van Benthem

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow!...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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