'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 14th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/635/original/image_32488738921618434736177.png?1618434737" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200635"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday. There were only three positives among large caps, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, which has changed its year-end limiting comparability. There was no revision to the company's now six-month-old forecasts. Shoe retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abc-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3213:1" rel="noopener">ABC Mart (2670 JP)</a> fared less well but is optimistic about FY22.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/644/original/image_16911018231618435000838.png?1618435002" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200644"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/646/original/image_24286058841618435028922.png?1618435030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200646"></figure>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 14th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/649/original/image_3948594651618435133716.png?1618435135" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200649"></figure>REVISIONS/FORECASTS - Bullishness abounds for FY22, particularly amongst the many Restaurant Sector companies, of which coffee house <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doutor-nichires-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3096:1" rel="noopener">Doutor Nichires (3087 JP) </a>would be our value pick. Erstwhile E-Commerce darling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a> was the only negatively-scoring large-cap, foreseeing yet more margin erosion. The shares remain overvalued at 36 EV/TTM OP.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/652/original/image_67668075561618435352425.png?1618435353" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200652"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/655/original/image_87740698871618435386254.png?1618435387" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200655"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 14th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday. There were only three positives among large caps, including Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), which has changed its year-end limiting comparability. There was no revision to the company's now six-month-old forecasts. Shoe retailer ABC Mart (2670 JP) fared less well but is optimistic about FY22.• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 14th APRIL •REVISIONS/FORECASTS - Bullishness abounds for FY22, particularly amongst the many Restaurant Sector companies, of which coffee house Doutor Nichires (3087 JP) would be our value pick. Erstwhile E-Commerce darling Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP) was the only negatively-scoring large-cap, foreseeing yet more margin erosion. The shares remain overvalued at 36 EV/TTM OP.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last month and makes some specific long and short stock recommendations.COMPANY RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold. We have excluded the first twelve months of trading for newly-listed companies to remove the distortion created by the initial over-pricing of most public offerings in Japan of which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1">Mercari (4385 JP)</a> is the latest example. Currently, 123 companies are 'overbought', and 116 are 'oversold' - 3.3% and 3.2% of the 3,672 listed companies for which monthly data is available.  The current numbers and percentages are the largest in many years. Overbought and oversold states account for 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively of the 837,586 months of data covered since October 1990. The average 'overbought persistence' is four months with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16576" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1">Lion (4912 JP)</a> holding the record for the longest period at 24 months from September 2016 to date. The average 'oversold persistence' is 7.5 months with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9013" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a> holding the record having been in that state for the 45 months since January 2015. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/937/original/2018-09-15_16-41-44.png?1536997320" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63937"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OUTLIER EXTREMES - Currently, the percentage of companies that are positive outliers (&gt;4) it is a 26-year high, while the percentage of negative outliers (&lt;-2) is at a 17-year high. In the past and unsurprisingly, increases in the ratio of positive and negative outliers have been bullish and bearish, respectively. It is highly unusual for both positive and negative outliers to be rising sharply at the same time. The only similar period in the last thirty years was during the 'tech bubble'. In February 2000 the overbought and oversold percentages peaked at 2.4% and 20.5%, respectively. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/123/original/2018-09-18_11-05-49.png?1537236390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64123"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>MARKET TIMING TEMPTATION - It is always appealing to attempt to derive trading strategies from such data - a temptation we shall resist except for the observations that the oversold ratio rises into market peaks but that a decline in the overbought ratio of at least one percentage point is required to confirm a peak. At present, only the former condition is fulfilled.  COMPANY RECOMMENDATIONS - Recommendations and comments are provided below on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8029" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8029:1">Milbon (4919 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a> as well as new entrants and potential additions to the long and short Relative Price Score Portfolios.

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last month and makes some specific long and short stock recommendations.COMPANY RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold. We have excluded the first twelve months of trading for newly-listed companies to remove the distortion created by the initial over-pricing of most public offerings in Japan of which Mercari (4385 JP) is the latest example. Currently, 123 companies are 'overbought', and 116 are 'oversold' - 3.3% and 3.2% of the 3,672 listed companies for which monthly data is available.  The current numbers and percentages are the largest in many years. Overbought and oversold states account for 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively of the 837,586 months of data covered since October 1990. The average 'overbought persistence' is four months with Lion (4912 JP) holding the record for the longest period at 24 months from September 2016 to date. The average 'oversold persistence' is 7.5 months with Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) holding the record having been in that state for the 45 months since January 2015. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLIER EXTREMES - Currently, the percentage of companies that are positive outliers (&gt;4) it is a 26-year high, while the percentage of negative outliers (&lt;-2) is at a 17-year high. In the past and unsurprisingly, increases in the ratio of positive and negative outliers have been bullish and bearish, respectively. It is highly unusual for both positive and negative outliers to be rising sharply at the same time. The only similar period in the last thirty years was during the 'tech bubble'. In February 2000 the overbought and oversold percentages peaked at 2.4% and 20.5%, respectively. Source: Japan AnalyticsMARKET TIMING TEMPTATION - It is always appealing to attempt to derive trading strategies from such data - a temptation we shall resist except for the observations that the oversold ratio rises into market peaks but that a decline in the overbought ratio of at least one percentage point is required to confirm a peak. At present, only the former condition is fulfilled.  COMPANY RECOMMENDATIONS - Recommendations and comments are provided below on Shiseido (4911 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP), Milbon (4919 JP) and Workman (7564 JP) as well as new entrants and potential additions to the long and short Relative Price Score Portfolios.

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Companies

Japan

DOUTOR NICHIRES Holdings Co., Ltd is establish through merger of DOUTOR COFFEE and NIPPON RESTAURANT SYSTEM.  The Company operates a coffee shop and restaurant chain. DOUTOR NICHIRES manages all business operations, from producing and procuring coffee beans to roasting, wholesaling, and retailing.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Doutor Nichires Holdings Co (3087 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

RESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday.

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Companies

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires

RESULTS - The percentage of positive Results Scores continues to fall, with only 39% of the 116 results reported on Wednesday.

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Companies

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/14 - Finding Value in ABC-MART & Doutor Nichires