Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.</li>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a>'s recent share buyback, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.</li>
<li>Kirin bumps the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


The trade in Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.
Despite Swire Properties (1972 HK)'s recent share buyback, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.
Kirin bumps the Offer for Fancl (4921 JP). Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.</li>
<li>Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.</li>
<li>The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.</li>
</ul>


The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.
Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.
The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.


Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oklo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38840" rel="noopener">Oklo (OKLO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-uranium-vanadium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43774" rel="noopener">Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN)</a> will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.</li>
<li>There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.

Oklo (OKLO US) and Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 26 July, it was reported in the local media that there has been a major breach of duty by nearly 40 current/former employees at Doosan Bobcat.</li>
<li>The fact that this material breach of duty was not revealed prior to the merger announcement adds to the argument that this merger/split/delisting should be either cancelled or redone. </li>
<li>We remain negative on all major companies involved in this deal including Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics. The breach of duty at Doosan Bobcat adds to the fire. </li>
</ul>


On 26 July, it was reported in the local media that there has been a major breach of duty by nearly 40 current/former employees at Doosan Bobcat.
The fact that this material breach of duty was not revealed prior to the merger announcement adds to the argument that this merger/split/delisting should be either cancelled or redone. 
We remain negative on all major companies involved in this deal including Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics. The breach of duty at Doosan Bobcat adds to the fire. 


Doosan Bobcat Employees Involved In Major Breach of Duty + Doosan Group Pushes Ahead With Merger

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Doosan Robotics reported disappointing 2Q 2024 results. It generated sales of 14.4 billion won (up 10.1% YoY) and operating loss of 7.9 billion won in 2Q 2024.</li>
<li>After the disappointing results in 2Q 2024, it is likely that the consensus will lower their sales and profit estimates of Doosan Robotics for the next three years.</li>
<li>The consensus is likely to lower sales estimates by at least 15-20%+ in the next two years. In addition, the profit margin estimates are likely to be reduced materially. </li>
</ul>


Doosan Robotics reported disappointing 2Q 2024 results. It generated sales of 14.4 billion won (up 10.1% YoY) and operating loss of 7.9 billion won in 2Q 2024.
After the disappointing results in 2Q 2024, it is likely that the consensus will lower their sales and profit estimates of Doosan Robotics for the next three years.
The consensus is likely to lower sales estimates by at least 15-20%+ in the next two years. In addition, the profit margin estimates are likely to be reduced materially. 


Doosan Robotics: 2Q 2024 Results Analysis

South Korea

Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes construction machines. The Company produces gas turbines, engines, turbine generators, boilers, power plant equipment, and other related products. Doosan Enerbility also offers energy solutions for thermal power, nuclear power, and renewable energy.

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Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Doosan submitted the revised securities registration statement for its restructuring. As suggested in this post, the merger ratio remains...

Sanghyun Park

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

The changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index will be implemented at the close tomorrow. There is a fair bit to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Doosan Bobcat Employees Involved In Major Breach of Duty + Doosan Group Pushes Ahead With Merger

On 26 July, it was reported in the local media that there has been a major breach of duty by nearly 40 current/former employees at Doosan Bobcat.

Douglas Kim

Doosan Robotics: 2Q 2024 Results Analysis

Doosan Robotics reported disappointing 2Q 2024 results which is likely to lead to consensus lowering sales and profit estimates for the next three...

Douglas Kim

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Doosan submitted the revised securities registration statement for its restructuring. As suggested in this post, the merger ratio remains...

Sanghyun Park

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

The changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index will be implemented at the close tomorrow. There is a fair bit to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Doosan Bobcat Employees Involved In Major Breach of Duty + Doosan Group Pushes Ahead With Merger

On 26 July, it was reported in the local media that there has been a major breach of duty by nearly 40 current/former employees at Doosan Bobcat.

Douglas Kim

Doosan Robotics: 2Q 2024 Results Analysis

​Doosan Robotics reported disappointing 2Q 2024 results which is likely to lead to consensus lowering sales and profit estimates for the next three...

Douglas Kim

Doosan Robotics reported disappointing 2Q 2024 results which is likely to lead to consensus lowering sales and profit estimates for the next three...