TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

I'm trying to come up with some meme-able business idea so like Adam Aron (no relation) I can raise $589MM. If the SmartKarma community has any idea, I'm all ears. I'll even go with something not in terminal secular decline!On to the weekly...Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps working.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

I'm trying to come up with some meme-able business idea so like Adam Aron (no relation) I can raise $589MM. If the SmartKarma community has any idea, I'm all ears. I'll even go with something not in terminal secular decline!On to the weekly...Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps working.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​4/​​​​​2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Qualtrics International / Equity Capital Markets

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.  

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):<ol>
<li>
COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).</li>
<li>
Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billions</a> to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.</li>
<li>
PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.</li>
</ol>

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):

COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).

Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated billions to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.

PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Slack Technologies Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

If all other work from home beneficiaries used by SMBs continue to see explosive growth <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-video-communications-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28029:1" rel="noopener">Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/docusign-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27060:1" rel="noopener">DocuSign Inc (DOCU US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)</a> , but you see sharp deceleration, you may have a competition issue.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

If all other work from home beneficiaries used by SMBs continue to see explosive growth Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM US) , DocuSign Inc (DOCU US) , Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US) , but you see sharp deceleration, you may have a competition issue.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

United States

DocuSign, Inc. provides electronic signature solutions. The Company offers platform that enables businesses of all sizes to digitally prepare, sign, act on, and manage agreements. DocuSign serves mortgage, non-profit, government, real estate, insurance, technology, and healthcare industries worldwide.

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DocuSign (DOCU US)

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/4/2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps...

Aaron Gabin

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

Coupa 2Q21: P/S Multiples Are Coup-Ed Up

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in...

Aaron Gabin

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

If all other work

Aaron Gabin

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TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​4/​​​​​2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps...

Aaron Gabin

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

Coupa 2Q21: P/S Multiples Are Coup-Ed Up

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in...

Aaron Gabin

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

If all other work

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/4/2021 (Non-AMC Edition)