New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Stride Property (SPG) reported a weak 1H25 as expected, with one-offs in the prior period not repeating.</li><li>While underlying rent growth remains solid, vacancy ticked up in SPG's lower-quality office assets.</li><li>The key new news was the restructure of Industre, which is a slight negative in 2H25 but significantly lifts distributions to SPG going forward. </li></ul>

Stride Property (SPG) reported a weak 1H25 as expected, with one-offs in the prior period not repeating.While underlying rent growth remains solid, vacancy ticked up in SPG's lower-quality office assets.The key new news was the restructure of Industre, which is a slight negative in 2H25 but significantly lifts distributions to SPG going forward. 

Stride Property - 1H25 — Striding Through the Trough

<ul><li>Stride (SPG) reported stable FY24 earnings with one-offs offsetting lower management fee income and higher interest costs.</li><li>SPG guided to FY25 DPS of 8.0cps, which was above our expectation, supported by an increased payout ratio and low-cost debt hedging. SPG has a busy FY25, particularly in its office portfolio.</li><li>We remain positive on the longer-term potential for SPG's transition to a capital light asset manager, albeit the near term remains challenging. </li></ul>

Stride (SPG) reported stable FY24 earnings with one-offs offsetting lower management fee income and higher interest costs.SPG guided to FY25 DPS of 8.0cps, which was above our expectation, supported by an increased payout ratio and low-cost debt hedging. SPG has a busy FY25, particularly in its office portfolio.We remain positive on the longer-term potential for SPG's transition to a capital light asset manager, albeit the near term remains challenging. 

Stride Property - FY24 Result — Running Hard in 25

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month.</li><li>Over the last two months the sector has returned +13%. This is the largest two month return since August 2009 (+12%).</li><li>Reported results and forward guidance delivered during the month were largely in line with expectations, though some outlook comments were tempered by the economic backdrop.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month.Over the last two months the sector has returned +13%. This is the largest two month return since August 2009 (+12%).Reported results and forward guidance delivered during the month were largely in line with expectations, though some outlook comments were tempered by the economic backdrop.

Real Estate Reflections - Road to Recovery

<ul><li>The listed property sector had a weak month in February, continuing a challenging start to 2024.</li><li>Listed property vehicles (LPVs) that reported in February came broadly in-line with expectations, with higher corporate costs and lower net interest costs being the key differences to our forecasts.</li><li>While operational metrics remain solid there were signs of slowing market rent growth. </li></ul>

The listed property sector had a weak month in February, continuing a challenging start to 2024.Listed property vehicles (LPVs) that reported in February came broadly in-line with expectations, with higher corporate costs and lower net interest costs being the key differences to our forecasts.While operational metrics remain solid there were signs of slowing market rent growth. 

Real Estate Reflections - A Challenging Start to the Year

<ul><li>Stride (SPG) reported a strong 1H24, boosted by one-offs.</li><li>FY24 dividend guidance was unchanged, but we forecast a -9% decline in FY25 driven by a triple headwind of higher tax payable, lower management fee income, and reduced distributions received from co-investments.</li><li>We remain positive on the longer-term potential for SPG's transition to a capital light asset manager, albeit the near term remains challenging. </li></ul>

Stride (SPG) reported a strong 1H24, boosted by one-offs.FY24 dividend guidance was unchanged, but we forecast a -9% decline in FY25 driven by a triple headwind of higher tax payable, lower management fee income, and reduced distributions received from co-investments.We remain positive on the longer-term potential for SPG's transition to a capital light asset manager, albeit the near term remains challenging. 

Stride Property - 1H24 Result — Leg-Up From One-Offs External Inbox Updates

New Zealand

Stride Stapled Limited operates as a real estate investment management company. The Company invests in office, retail, and industrial properties, which are located in the urban areas across New Zealand.

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Stride Property (STR NZ)

Stride Property - 1H25 — Striding Through the Trough

Stride Property (SPG) reported a weak 1H25 as expected, with one-offs in the prior period not repeating. While underlying rent growth remains solid

Forsyth Barr

Stride Property - FY24 Result — Running Hard in 25

Stride (SPG) reported stable FY24 earnings with one-offs offsetting lower management fee income and higher interest costs.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Road to Recovery

August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month. Over the last two months the...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - A Challenging Start to the Year

Listed property vehicles (LPVs) that reported in February came broadly in-line with expectations, with higher corporate costs and lower net...

Forsyth Barr

Stride Property - 1H24 Result — Leg-Up From One-Offs External Inbox Updates

We remain positive on the longer-term potential for SPG's transition to a capital light asset manager, albeit the near term remains challenging.

Forsyth Barr

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