Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

Svenska Handelsbanken AB / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Strategy</h2>Scandinavian banks look set for (another) period of share price underperformance despite optically high earnings and dividend yields plus best-in-class (by European standards) average CET1 ratios.Many banks delivered subpar fundamental progression at Q118 as judged by our PH Score™. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22475:1">Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEBA SS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22480" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22480:1">Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SHBA SS)</a> scored 2.6 while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22438" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22438:1">Nordea Bank AB (NDA SS)</a> achieved 3.7 (quintile 5). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22336" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22336:1">Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE DC)</a> at 4.9 was a bit better but…

StrategyScandinavian banks look set for (another) period of share price underperformance despite optically high earnings and dividend yields plus best-in-class (by European standards) average CET1 ratios.Many banks delivered subpar fundamental progression at Q118 as judged by our PH Score™. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEBA SS) and Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SHBA SS) scored 2.6 while Nordea Bank AB (NDA SS) achieved 3.7 (quintile 5). Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE DC) at 4.9 was a bit better but…

Nordic Banks: Underperformance or Something More Serious?

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Norway

DNB ASA is a commercial bank.  The Bank's services include retail, commercial, corporate, and investment banking, and life, pension, and non-life insurance. The services are provided to private customers, small businesses, and large companies.  DNB offers special services to the shipping industry.  The Bank operates through several subsidiaries in Norway and abroad.

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DNB ASA (DNB NO)

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend...

Vermilion Research

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

Nordic Banks: Underperformance or Something More Serious?

StrategyScandinavian banks look set for (another) period of share price underperformance despite optically high earnings and dividend yields plus...

Paul Hollingworth

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

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