Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.</li>
<li>We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.</li>
<li>Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.</li>
</ul>


Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.
Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.


[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I

<ul>
<li>The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a> reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. 

Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? 
Other names discussed include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN). 


[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

<ul>
<li>The index seems to be finding support at 19,500 for the second consecutive week. Bullish momentum could resume when we close above 19,800 on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> .</li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>We also introduce the Earnings Diary which will be part of the publication, tracking estimates and narratives around over coverage. </li>
</ul>


The index seems to be finding support at 19,500 for the second consecutive week. Bullish momentum could resume when we close above 19,800 on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) .
Names discussed include Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) and Metro Brands (METROBRA IN).  
We also introduce the Earnings Diary which will be part of the publication, tracking estimates and narratives around over coverage. 


[Week 6] Namaste India 🙏 | TTAN's Glittery Update and Earnings Workbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> rebalance was implemented last week and there were interesting moves at the close on implementation day.</li>
<li>The focus this week will be on pre-positioning for a global index rebalance where the review period commences next week.</li>
<li>Units outstanding on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US)</a> are at a new high while there continue to be redemptions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) rebalance was implemented last week and there were interesting moves at the close on implementation day.
The focus this week will be on pre-positioning for a global index rebalance where the review period commences next week.
Units outstanding on iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US) are at a new high while there continue to be redemptions in iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Taiwan Div+, Nifty50, Cainiao IPO, Delta Electronics

<ul>
<li>There should be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.</li>
<li>Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.</li>
<li>Inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment before January could lead to another change.</li>
</ul>


There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment before January could lead to another change.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two's Company; Three's A Crowd

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I

Deviating from our usual format due to earnings season, this is a long but must-read for anyone who is keen to track the earnings of Indian...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 6] Namaste India 🙏 | TTAN's Glittery Update and Earnings Workbook

Bullish momentum may resume if NIFTY Index closes above 19,800. Names discussed Titan Co Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India, and Metro Brands. Earnings...

Pranav Bhavsar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Taiwan Div+, Nifty50, Cainiao IPO, Delta Electronics

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two's Company; Three's A Crowd

There could be 2 changes to the NIFTY in March. That could increase to 3 if DMART is added to FnO or if there are large price moves on some stocks....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I

Deviating from our usual format due to earnings season, this is a long but must-read for anyone who is keen to track the earnings of Indian...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 6] Namaste India 🙏 | TTAN's Glittery Update and Earnings Workbook

​Bullish momentum may resume if NIFTY Index closes above 19,800. Names discussed Titan Co Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India, and Metro Brands. Earnings...

Pranav Bhavsar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Taiwan Div+, Nifty50, Cainiao IPO, Delta Electronics

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two's Company; Three's A Crowd

There could be 2 changes to the NIFTY in March. That could increase to 3 if DMART is added to FnO or if there are large price moves on some stocks....

Brian Freitas

Bullish momentum may resume if NIFTY Index closes above 19,800. Names discussed Titan Co Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India, and Metro Brands. Earnings...