Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Concord Biotech Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> raised US$188m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) raised US$188m in its India IPO.
Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Concord Biotech IPO Trading - Strong Subscription Rates, Peers Have Moved up Since Last Note

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$188m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) is looking to raise around US$188m in its India IPO.
Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Concord Biotech IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation - Smaller in Scale but Wider in Margins

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> is amongst the few fermentation-based API manufacturing companies globally. The company commanded market share of 20%+ by volume in 2022 across identified fermentation‐based API products.</li>
<li>Concord Biotech IPO opens for subscription on August 4. The IPO consists of offer for sale of 21M shares by Helix Investment Holdings at a price band of INR705–741/share.</li>
<li>Large and growing addressable market, sizable market share, niche and limited competition offering, consistent growth and profitability, and reasonable valuation make the IPO worth of subscribing.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) is amongst the few fermentation-based API manufacturing companies globally. The company commanded market share of 20%+ by volume in 2022 across identified fermentation‐based API products.
Concord Biotech IPO opens for subscription on August 4. The IPO consists of offer for sale of 21M shares by Helix Investment Holdings at a price band of INR705–741/share.
Large and growing addressable market, sizable market share, niche and limited competition offering, consistent growth and profitability, and reasonable valuation make the IPO worth of subscribing.


Concord Biotech (Pre-IPO): Niche Offering Amid Lean Competition to Drive Stable Growth

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Concord Biotech IPO Trading - Strong Subscription Rates, Peers Have Moved up Since Last Note

Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) raised US$188m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Concord Biotech IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation - Smaller in Scale but Wider in Margins

Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) is looking to raise around US$188m in its India IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, and share...

Clarence Chu

Concord Biotech (Pre-IPO): Niche Offering Amid Lean Competition to Drive Stable Growth

The IPO consists of offer for sale of 21M shares by Helix Investment Holdings at a price band of INR705–741/share. Through this IPO, Concord seeks...

Tina Banerjee

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