Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.</li>
<li>The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.
The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.


Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Series of mysterious and unexplained stock market crashes involving major companies like Viacom, Discovery, Tencent, and Baidu</li><li>A little-known family office called Archegos Capital Management led by Bill Hwang is revealed to be the mastermind behind the chaos</li><li>Bill Hwang's past involvement in hedge fund scandals and illegal activities sheds light on the criminal nature of the implosion of Archegos Capital Management</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Series of mysterious and unexplained stock market crashes involving major companies like Viacom, Discovery, Tencent, and BaiduA little-known family office called Archegos Capital Management led by Bill Hwang is revealed to be the mastermind behind the chaosBill Hwang's past involvement in hedge fund scandals and illegal activities sheds light on the criminal nature of the implosion of Archegos Capital ManagementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US) </a>fall out has created a significant buying opportunity in Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD US)</li>
<li>Warren Buffet's purchases of WBD peer Paramount Global (PARA US) only serves to validate the buying opportunity in the much cheaper WBD</li>
<li>Attributing a PARA-like value multiple to WBD's Consensus 2023 EBITDA which is a little lower than management's reaffirmed guidance, indicates a value up lift of 80% plus</li>
</ul>


The Netflix Inc (NFLX US) fall out has created a significant buying opportunity in Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD US)
Warren Buffet's purchases of WBD peer Paramount Global (PARA US) only serves to validate the buying opportunity in the much cheaper WBD
Attributing a PARA-like value multiple to WBD's Consensus 2023 EBITDA which is a little lower than management's reaffirmed guidance, indicates a value up lift of 80% plus


MergerTalk: Why Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Mis-Valuation Opportunity Rather Than A Value Trap

<ul>
<li>Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.</li>
<li>Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?</li>
<li>The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. </li>
</ul>


Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.
Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?
The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. 


United States

Discovery, Inc. provides non-fiction entertainment. The Company operates a wide range of educational television channels as well as offers consumer and educational products and services, and a diversified portfolio of digital media services.

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Discovery, Inc. (DISCK US)

Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. Investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Was the Archegos implosion illegal?

The Archegos Capital Management scandal reveals how one man's actions can have a significant and unexpected impact on the financial markets,...

Behind the Money

MergerTalk: Why Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Mis-Valuation Opportunity Rather Than A Value Trap

Why Warren Buffet's enthusiasm for Paramount Global should encourage value investors to take a closer look at Warner Bros, Discovery

Robert Sassoon

Netflix 1Q22: Willfull Ignorance

Netflix management seemed unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years. Competitive...

Aaron Gabin

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