Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

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DISCO Corp (6146 JP)

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

Kokusai Electric had run up versus the SOX Index. Then, Kokusai Electric underperformed the SOX during the selloff. With an early (surprise) index...

Brian Freitas

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Japan markets have now entered Bear Markets (-20% from peak level) and the JPY continues to strengthen effecting an unwind of carry trades...

David Mudd

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

Kokusai Electric had run up versus the SOX Index. Then, Kokusai Electric underperformed the SOX during the selloff. With an early (surprise) index...

Brian Freitas

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Japan markets have now entered Bear Markets (-20% from peak level) and the JPY continues to strengthen effecting an unwind of carry trades...

David Mudd

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...