Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market reforms in January</a> encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.</li><li>Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.</li><li>And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.</li></ul>

Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of market reforms in January encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday saw a notable rotation out of recent momentum winners in Japan towards oversold quality such as SPE.</li>
<li>EU defence names generally stronger on concerns over Trumps Greenland/Denmark comments may be mild positive for JP heavies.</li>
<li>Power semi weakness in the US at least partially over news Renesas is cutting workforce on weak auto chip sales.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday saw a notable rotation out of recent momentum winners in Japan towards oversold quality such as SPE.
EU defence names generally stronger on concerns over Trumps Greenland/Denmark comments may be mild positive for JP heavies.
Power semi weakness in the US at least partially over news Renesas is cutting workforce on weak auto chip sales.


Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

<ul>
<li>Micron named as memory supplier for NVDA GPU's sent Micronics 12% yesterday.</li>
<li>Ibiden continues to look like a big Blackwell winner with momentum increasing off recent low.</li>
<li>Big outstanding short interest for Nikon making it a squeeze ready take-over target.</li>
</ul>


Micron named as memory supplier for NVDA GPU's sent Micronics 12% yesterday.
Ibiden continues to look like a big Blackwell winner with momentum increasing off recent low.
Big outstanding short interest for Nikon making it a squeeze ready take-over target.


Big Tech Fades on NVDA While Micron, Apple Supplies Gain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.

Strike Energy (STX AU) will replace Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to iShares India ETF (INDA US) and Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

<ul>
<li>NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.</li>
<li>The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.</li>
<li>Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.</li>
</ul>


NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.
The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.
Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

Japan

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

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DISCO Corp (6146 JP)

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

Rotation from momentum winners into oversold quality such as SPE, EU defense name strength may be positive for JP heavies, US power semi weakness...

Andrew Jackson

Big Tech Fades on NVDA While Micron, Apple Supplies Gain

Micron's partnership with NVDA boosts stock, Ibiden gains momentum, Nikon a potential takeover target due to high short interest.

Andrew Jackson

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

Rotation from momentum winners into oversold quality such as SPE, EU defense name strength may be positive for JP heavies, US power semi weakness...

Andrew Jackson

Big Tech Fades on NVDA While Micron, Apple Supplies Gain

​Micron's partnership with NVDA boosts stock, Ibiden gains momentum, Nikon a potential takeover target due to high short interest.

Andrew Jackson

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

​NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

Micron's partnership with NVDA boosts stock, Ibiden gains momentum, Nikon a potential takeover target due to high short interest.

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...