India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>If we look more closely at the latest Industrial Production (IIP) increase data which reported a strong overall growth of 8.1% yoy, we find a mixed picture emerging on the component wise contribution and growth across categories. The industry group ‘Manufacture of furniture’ has shown highest positive growth of 41.0% followed by 39.0% in ‘Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork’, which is not as such the indicators of robust capacity creation for an economy. There are other interesting data points as well. Among top five item groups with positive percentage increase in production, some are purely consumption items which will have rather limited impact in terms of long term positive implications for the country.</p><p>But, what is that we are most worried about? For several previous months, IIP growth data is getting massive support from huge growth in electricity consumption. Electricity has contributed the most in growth even in October data (almost 20% more than mining, the second most important contributor and the one which has double the weight as compared to electricity). But, this could also be primarily driven by Government schemes such as SAUBHAGYA and other initiatives for rural electrification which are in overdrive. If this is not managed well, massive growth in electricity could lead to more stress for DISCOMs (power distribution companies) and that could be harmful for the entire power sector.</p>

If we look more closely at the latest Industrial Production (IIP) increase data which reported a strong overall growth of 8.1% yoy, we find a mixed picture emerging on the component wise contribution and growth across categories. The industry group ‘Manufacture of furniture’ has shown highest positive growth of 41.0% followed by 39.0% in ‘Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork’, which is not as such the indicators of robust capacity creation for an economy. There are other interesting data points as well. Among top five item groups with positive percentage increase in production, some are purely consumption items which will have rather limited impact in terms of long term positive implications for the country.But, what is that we are most worried about? For several previous months, IIP growth data is getting massive support from huge growth in electricity consumption. Electricity has contributed the most in growth even in October data (almost 20% more than mining, the second most important contributor and the one which has double the weight as compared to electricity). But, this could also be primarily driven by Government schemes such as SAUBHAGYA and other initiatives for rural electrification which are in overdrive. If this is not managed well, massive growth in electricity could lead to more stress for DISCOMs (power distribution companies) and that could be harmful for the entire power sector.

India: How "Free Electricity" Schemes May Be Linked to Excellent Industrial Growth Numbers?

India

Dilip Buildcon Limited operates in engineering, procurement, and construction business. The Company focuses on development, operation, and maintenance of roads, bridges, culverts, tunnels, high capacity transport corridors, and subways, as well as building works, pump stations, civil structures, and ware housing structures.

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Dilip Buildcon Ltd (DBL IN)

India: How "Free Electricity" Schemes May Be Linked to Excellent Industrial Growth Numbers?

If we look more closely at the latest Industrial Production (IIP) increase data which reported a strong overall growth of 8.1% yoy, we find a mixed...

Pankaj Sharma

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