Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SGX FY 1H22 core results were not robust, coming in at SGD 216 mn, improving just SGD 1.0 mn (0.5%) HOH and reflected weakened revenues; </li>
<li>Derivatives revenue improved 3.4% HOH, resultant of slightly higher contract volumes, and higher rates and lower discounts. HKEX's foray into the A50 will ultimately eat away at SGX’s business; and </li>
<li>Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the HKEX. </li>
</ul>


SGX FY 1H22 core results were not robust, coming in at SGD 216 mn, improving just SGD 1.0 mn (0.5%) HOH and reflected weakened revenues; 
Derivatives revenue improved 3.4% HOH, resultant of slightly higher contract volumes, and higher rates and lower discounts. HKEX's foray into the A50 will ultimately eat away at SGX’s business; and 
Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the HKEX. 


<ul>
<li>
A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; </li>
<li>
Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and </li>
<li>
Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.</li>
</ul>



A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; 

Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and 

Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.


Germany

Deutsche Boerse AG provides a variety of stock exchange introduction, trading, and operational services to institutions and private investors. The Company offers electronic trading systems for buying and selling of securities on stock exchanges in Europe.  Deutsche Boerse offers indices such as DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and XTF, as well as trading in options and futures.

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Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR)

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

Singapore Exchange – No Real Progress

SGX: SGX reported FY 1H22 core results were not robust. The top-line hiccup was nearly offset by better-than-expected cost control.

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange - Ringing Hollow

SGX: A50 Challenges: HKEx launched the MSCI China A50 Connect, which directly competes with 20% of SGX' PBT. A recent competitor event revealed...

Thomas J. Monaco

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