Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Demae-Can Co., Ltd. / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Demae-Can once offered a sound business model in a niche for Japan and generated consistent double-digit growth with mid-teens margins, making it a relatively attractive stock for Japan. Since its push into the delivery business though, margins have collapsed, and cash-burn has reached Wework-ian proportions. Nevertheless, on a short-term basis, this could prove attractive.</p>

Demae-Can once offered a sound business model in a niche for Japan and generated consistent double-digit growth with mid-teens margins, making it a relatively attractive stock for Japan. Since its push into the delivery business though, margins have collapsed, and cash-burn has reached Wework-ian proportions. Nevertheless, on a short-term basis, this could prove attractive.

Demae-Can – Structurally Appalling but a Good Trade

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/demae-can-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10524:1" rel="noopener">Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP)</a>  is looking to raise up to a total of JPY80bn (US$730m) from a combination of overseas offering to investors and share sale to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>.</p><p>In this note, we will take a brief look at deal dynamics, fundamentals, and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p>

Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP)  is looking to raise up to a total of JPY80bn (US$730m) from a combination of overseas offering to investors and share sale to Z Holdings (4689 JP) and Naver Corp (035420 KS).In this note, we will take a brief look at deal dynamics, fundamentals, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Demae-Can Placement - Massive Dilution to Pursue Market Share

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>Japan-based food delivery company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/demae-can-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10524:1" rel="noopener">Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP)</a> launched a follow-on equity offering after market-close today to raise capital for business expansion. </p><p>In this offering the company will be issuing 55,436,400 new shares and selling 3,240,000 treasury shares out of which a total of 19,293,900 shares will be allocated to the public and 39,382,500 shares will be allocated for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> and South-Korea based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>. Based on today's closing price, the total size of this equity offering could be around ~¥105bn (US$950mn) and the portion allocated to public shareholders could be around ~¥35bn (US$315mn). However, the official announcement estimates the minimum size of the equity offering to be around ~¥80bn (US$726mn) and the above-mentioned allocation can change slightly depending on share price movement and public investor interest. </p><p>There is a really interesting event angle here which should pique the interest of investors. </p><p>More below.</p>

Japan-based food delivery company Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP) launched a follow-on equity offering after market-close today to raise capital for business expansion. In this offering the company will be issuing 55,436,400 new shares and selling 3,240,000 treasury shares out of which a total of 19,293,900 shares will be allocated to the public and 39,382,500 shares will be allocated for Z Holdings (4689 JP) and South-Korea based Naver Corp (035420 KS). Based on today's closing price, the total size of this equity offering could be around ~¥105bn (US$950mn) and the portion allocated to public shareholders could be around ~¥35bn (US$315mn). However, the official announcement estimates the minimum size of the equity offering to be around ~¥80bn (US$726mn) and the above-mentioned allocation can change slightly depending on share price movement and public investor interest. There is a really interesting event angle here which should pique the interest of investors. More below.

Demae-Can's Latest Offering Preserves The Potential for TOPIX Inclusion

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/770/original/image_57334545521616964192596.png?1616964192" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197770"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/771/original/image_10738985631616964271545.png?1616964271" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197771"></figure><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/demae-can-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10524:1" rel="noopener">Demae-Can (2484 JP)</a> saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! </p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/772/original/2021-03-27_08-15-34.png?1616964525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197772"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life (8194 JP)</a> was the largest cap. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/774/original/image_47158678551616964791891.png?1616964792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197774"></figure><p>Meanwhile, urban railway operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) </a>is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.</p><p></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/775/original/image_73678410461616964884061.png?1616964884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197775"></figure>

• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •RESULTS - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which Life (8194 JP) was the largest cap. Meanwhile, urban railway operator Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

Japan

Demae-can Co., Ltd. operates websites offering comprehensive delivery services.  The Company's websites allow users to order food, dry cleaning, and repair and recycling services through the Internet.

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Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP)

Demae-Can – Structurally Appalling but a Good Trade

We believe Demae-Can's venture into the delivery space will be disastrous for the company and ruin what was once a small but nice business,...

Mio Kato

Demae-Can's Latest Offering Preserves The Potential for TOPIX Inclusion

Japan-based food delivery company Demae-Can announced a large equity offering to boost their marketing expenditure and defend their market share in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Demae-Can – Structurally Appalling but a Good Trade

We believe Demae-Can's venture into the delivery space will be disastrous for the company and ruin what was once a small but nice business,...

Mio Kato

Demae-Can Placement - Massive Dilution to Pursue Market Share

Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP) is looking to raise up to a total of JPY80bn (US$730m) from a combination of overseas offering to investors and...

Sumeet Singh

Demae-Can's Latest Offering Preserves The Potential for TOPIX Inclusion

Japan-based food delivery company Demae-Can announced a large equity offering to boost their marketing expenditure and defend their market share in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway