Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.</li>
<li>There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger and index changes the following week.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delta Thailand surged 20% since our last trade monitor piece. This was without any significant news and the company received another query from the stock exchange as a result.</li>
<li>Delta Taiwan increased by a higher 22%, thus the extreme valuation mismatch between the two has corrected slightly. Delta Taiwan is still only 0.78x the market cap of Delta Thailand.</li>
<li>Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta's battery management product portfolio and add client relationships.</li>
</ul>


Delta Thailand surged 20% since our last trade monitor piece. This was without any significant news and the company received another query from the stock exchange as a result.
Delta Taiwan increased by a higher 22%, thus the extreme valuation mismatch between the two has corrected slightly. Delta Taiwan is still only 0.78x the market cap of Delta Thailand.
Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta's battery management product portfolio and add client relationships.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China bans Micron chips for critical information infrastructure -- Taiwanese firms could benefit by straddling both sides of the trade tensions.</li>
<li>TSMC rallies as U.S. and Japan advance incentives for TSMC and Taiwanese firms.</li>
<li>Nvida earnings this week -- We'll see if the AI leader can keep the market excited about AI's brave new world.</li>
</ul>


China bans Micron chips for critical information infrastructure -- Taiwanese firms could benefit by straddling both sides of the trade tensions.
TSMC rallies as U.S. and Japan advance incentives for TSMC and Taiwanese firms.
Nvida earnings this week -- We'll see if the AI leader can keep the market excited about AI's brave new world.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: China Micron Restrictions; Taiwan Benefit From 'Chip Tensions'; Nvidia Earnings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

<ul>
<li>Delta Thailand has rallied 22.7% from its recent low, despite the local Thai market declining while the Taiwan market rose.</li>
<li>Latest Delta Thailand surge unlikely due to Thai market fund flows or company developments. Delta Taiwan generates 2.5x the net profit with similar growth, yet has a smaller market cap.</li>
<li>Over time, relative pricing should trend in Delta Taiwan's favor as valuations are likely to drive longer-term performance -- Also, should the SET50 Index be fixed? Seems broken.</li>
</ul>


Delta Thailand has rallied 22.7% from its recent low, despite the local Thai market declining while the Taiwan market rose.
Latest Delta Thailand surge unlikely due to Thai market fund flows or company developments. Delta Taiwan generates 2.5x the net profit with similar growth, yet has a smaller market cap.
Over time, relative pricing should trend in Delta Taiwan's favor as valuations are likely to drive longer-term performance -- Also, should the SET50 Index be fixed? Seems broken.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

Taiwan

Delta Electronics Inc. manufactures power supplies and video display products. The Company's products include switching power supplies, telecom power systems, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), variable speed alternating current (AC) monitor drives, high resolution color monitors, and projectors.  Delta also manufactures magnetic and networking components.

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Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?

Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: China Micron Restrictions; Taiwan Benefit From 'Chip Tensions'; Nvidia Earnings

Nvida earnings this week -- We'll see if the AI leader can keep the market excited about AI's brave new world. Mediatek a potential future winnner...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

We believe a change in SET50 requirements should be in order, to change the rules relating to index inclusion in order to remove this broken index...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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