Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. </li>
</ul>


There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.
Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.

Link Administration (LNK AU)'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. 


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27448:1">Uranium (UXA COMDTY)</a> prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27155:1">Cameco Corp (CCJ US)</a> and may also support junior miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions:

INVESTMENT VIEW:   We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like Cameco Corp (CCJ US) and may also support junior miners like Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions: 

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

Australia

Karoon Energy Ltd operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and acquires oil and gas exploration assets. Karoon Energy serves customers worldwide.

Energy Resources of Australia Limited is a uranium company which mines, processes and sells uranium oxide from the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and uranium concentrates sourced outside Australia to nuclear electric utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America.  The Company also provides environmental consulting services.

Strike Energy Limited is an oil and gas exploration company whose exploration activities are located in the Carnarvon Basin in Western Australia and the Cooper Basin in South Australia.

Bannerman Resources Ltd. explores for uranium in Australia and Africa.

Warrego Energy Limited operates as an oil and gas exploration company. The Company provides onshore oil and gas services. Warrego Energy serves customers in Western Australia, Spain, and Uruguay.

Cooper Energy Limited is an oil and gas exploration company focusing its activities in the Cooper Basin of South Australia.  The Company's exploration portfolio includes six tenements located throughout the Basin.

Norwest Energy NL explores for petroleum both offshore and onshore.  The Company's core regions of operation are the northern Perth Basin and onshore southern England's Wessex Basin.

Peninsula Energy Limited is a uranium development company.  The Company has exploring activities in Wyoming, Karoo South Africa, as well as Western Australia.

Horizon Oil Limited is involved in petroleum exploration, development and production.

Metro Mining Ltd focuses on the exploration and mining of aluminum and bauxite in tropical environments.

Nordic American Tankers Limited is a shipping company that owns and charters Suezmax tankers for oil transportation.  The Company's ships are all active in the spot freight market.

AAG Energy Holdings Limited is  an energy exploration and development company. The Company engages in coalbed methane exploration and development.

Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd. engages in the exploitation and distribution of coal in China. The company, through its subsidiaries, is also involved in the production and sale of mining equipment and accessories, as well as the provision of consulting services of coal mine technologies.

Teekay Corporation provides international crude oil and petroleum product transportation services to major oil companies, major oil traders, and government agencies.  The Company provides its services through a fleet of medium size oil tankers worldwide.

SAN-AI OIL CO., LTD. primarily wholesales petroleum and LP gas nationwide.  The Company also supplies fuels for aircrafts at Haneda Airport.  San-Ai Oil has business divisions including industry energy, gas, chemical and research, and business development.

PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk is a coal mining company in Kalimatan.

Ardmore Shipping Corp is engaged in the ownership and operation of product and chemical tankers in worldwide trade.  The Company provides shipping services to customers through voyage charters, commercial pools and time charters.

PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk produces liquefied petroleum gas.

REX American Resources Corporation is invested in ethanol production entities. The Company produces ethanol, and dried and modified distillers grains, as well as leases real estate properties.

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

Deep Yellow Limited is an advanced stage uranium exploration company progressing its core Namibian projects.

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Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning