Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

<ul>
<li>Sovereign 10-year yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and India (among others). This is a positive for shipping stocks on two levels.</li>
<li>(1) Rates moving higher generally suggests robust GDP growth, and more economic activity means more need for shipping.</li>
<li>(2) Value stocks historically outperform in rising rate environments, and most of the shipping stocks highlighted today have P/Es in the 4-6X range, putting them squarely in the value camp.</li>
</ul>


Sovereign 10-year yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and India (among others). This is a positive for shipping stocks on two levels.
(1) Rates moving higher generally suggests robust GDP growth, and more economic activity means more need for shipping.
(2) Value stocks historically outperform in rising rate environments, and most of the shipping stocks highlighted today have P/Es in the 4-6X range, putting them squarely in the value camp.


Shipping Stocks Set Sail; Buy DAC-US, SBLK-US, ZIM-US, GSL-US, GNK-US, GOGL-US, 316-HK,& MAERSK.B-DK

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Equity Bottom-Up

Pacific Basin Shipping / Equity Bottom-Up

So many ship stock charts said the same thing on breakouts last week. We couldn’t have asked for more. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/250" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:250">John-Paul Smith</a> said so much by way of a macro view.Bulk, tankers, and even container vessel owners  all broke to or flirted with new highs last week. But, these sub-categories also tell different stories – as they should.Stocks: If we look at Bulk in general, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21071" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21071:1">Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/929" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1">Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21069" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21069:1">Diana Shipping Inc (DSX US)</a> tell different but related…

So many ship stock charts said the same thing on breakouts last week. We couldn’t have asked for more. John-Paul Smith said so much by way of a macro view.Bulk, tankers, and even container vessel owners  all broke to or flirted with new highs last week. But, these sub-categories also tell different stories – as they should.Stocks: If we look at Bulk in general, Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK US) and Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK),  and Diana Shipping Inc (DSX US) tell different but related…

We’ve Got All the Breakouts We Want To Make Money in Shipping

Greece

Danaos Corporation owns a fleet of containerships.  The Company charters these vessels to liner companies.

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Danaos Corporation (DAC US)

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

Shipping Stocks Set Sail; Buy DAC-US, SBLK-US, ZIM-US, GSL-US, GNK-US, GOGL-US, 316-HK,& MAERSK.B-DK

Dry-bulk & energy shipping stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

We’ve Got All the Breakouts We Want To Make Money in Shipping

So many ship stock charts said the same thing on breakouts last week. We couldn’t have asked for more. John-Paul Smith said so much by way of a...

Charles De Trenck

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