Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Japan's largest Office REIT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/20201009_Notice%20Concerning%20Issue%20of%20New%20Investment%20Units%20and%20Secondry%20Offering%20on%20Investments%20Units.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> on 9th October 2020 and I provided a brief introduction to the background of the REIT and its offerings history in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-building-fund-8951-jp-reit-offering-take-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44090" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It</a>. As mentioned in that insight, the pricing date was expected to be between 20th and 22nd of October 2020 (pricing is normally on the first day in the pricing period).Today, after market close, NBF <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%E6%B1%BA%E5%AE%9A%E3%83%97%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B9_E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Issue Price to be ¥527,240/unit.Below is a brief recap of the Deal details (including confirmation of key dates) and a closer look at the attractiveness of this pricing.

Japan's largest Office REIT Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) follow-on equity offering on 9th October 2020 and I provided a brief introduction to the background of the REIT and its offerings history in Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It. As mentioned in that insight, the pricing date was expected to be between 20th and 22nd of October 2020 (pricing is normally on the first day in the pricing period).Today, after market close, NBF announced the Issue Price to be ¥527,240/unit.Below is a brief recap of the Deal details (including confirmation of key dates) and a closer look at the attractiveness of this pricing. 

NBF (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Pricing Announced. Wide Discount to Undisturbed.

Japan's largest Office REIT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/20201009_Notice%20Concerning%20Issue%20of%20New%20Investment%20Units%20and%20Secondry%20Offering%20on%20Investments%20Units.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> on 9th October 2020 to fund their recent acquisition of Shinjuku Mitsui Building and Gran Tokyo South Tower. 
This is the biggest REIT offering in Japan this year so far, is large historically, and is the first offering by NBF, the largest Office REIT by Market Cap since 2014.
NBF plans to offer 171,000 units in the Domestic Primary Offering and 58,000 units in the International Offering (mainly in the U.S., Europe and Asia). However, final allocation can be different depending on demand conditions. The over-allotment quantity will be 11,500 units. 
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/065/original/Price%20Performance.png?1602594897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165065"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
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As always, there is more below the fold.

Japan's largest Office REIT Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) follow-on equity offering on 9th October 2020 to fund their recent acquisition of Shinjuku Mitsui Building and Gran Tokyo South Tower. 
This is the biggest REIT offering in Japan this year so far, is large historically, and is the first offering by NBF, the largest Office REIT by Market Cap since 2014.
NBF plans to offer 171,000 units in the Domestic Primary Offering and 58,000 units in the International Offering (mainly in the U.S., Europe and Asia). However, final allocation can be different depending on demand conditions. The over-allotment quantity will be 11,500 units. 


Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)

As always, there is more below the fold. 

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

Japan

Daiwa Office Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products.

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Daiwa Office Investment (8976 JP)

NBF (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Pricing Announced. Wide Discount to Undisturbed.

The Nippon Building Fund (8951) REIT placement - the largest J-REIT placement this year - has priced. Based on historical patterns and value, it is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It

NBF's ¥140bn Offering is the largest J-REIT Offering in 2020. Historically, NBF Follow-On Offerings outperform TSEREIT and perform on an absolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Deteriorating...Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however,...

Vermilion Research

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