Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
</div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/498/original/image_2762037721610626999059.png?1610626999" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182498"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


<p>With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). </p>
<p>In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). <strong>Accumulate on weakness</strong>. </p>

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). 
In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). Accumulate on weakness. 

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/019/original/2020-04-22_06-23-27.png?1587504229" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129019"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/021/original/2020-04-22_06-24-35.png?1587504305" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129021"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Financial Times</div><p><strong>CATCHING UP</strong> - Japan has now surpassed South Korea in terms of both the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (11,431) and the cumulative number of deaths (275). Although the daily number of new cases has peaked, the number of daily death will increase for the rest of this month which will likely require an extension of the nationwide 'state of emergency' beyond the end of the Golden Week holidays on March 6th. Such a prolongation is not yet discounted in the equity market. A recent YouGov survey suggests that only 18% of Japan people have stopped going to work, the lowest level amongst the 26 countries covered.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/022/original/2020-04-22_06-48-21.png?1587505730" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129022"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DAIRY DEFICIENCY</strong> - With schools and many restaurants and hotels closed, the consumption of dairy products in Japan has declined to the point that the food ministry (MAFF) is requesting those at home to drink milk to save farms and livestock. Please see our recent bearish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quantamental-analysis-shows-meiji-s-perception-as-a-defensive-stock-could-be-a-delusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38288" rel="noopener">Insight</a> on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiji-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15996:1" rel="noopener">Meiji Holdings (2269 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/024/original/2020-04-22_06-53-01.png?1587506077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129024"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TAXI FARE</strong> - The are now hordes of empty taxis roaming the streets plying for non-existent fares.  The transport ministry (MLITT) has decided to loosen its taxi regulations to allow taxis to engage in food delivery. While a negative for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Uber Eats in Japan, this news seems to have prompted a 'pop' in the shares of Japan's only listed, and normally uninvestable, taxi company - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-motor-transportation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11886:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa Motor Transportation (9082 JP)</a>. </p><p>In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the seven results was 2:2:3; and for the 13 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:9. Of the six companies reporting annual results, only one made a forecast for the current year. Three companies withdrew annual forecasts, of which one also cancelled its dividend, while one REIT, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirai-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27741:1" rel="noopener">Mirai (3476 JP)</a>, cut its dividend. </p>

Source • Financial TimesCATCHING UP - Japan has now surpassed South Korea in terms of both the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (11,431) and the cumulative number of deaths (275). Although the daily number of new cases has peaked, the number of daily death will increase for the rest of this month which will likely require an extension of the nationwide 'state of emergency' beyond the end of the Golden Week holidays on March 6th. Such a prolongation is not yet discounted in the equity market. A recent YouGov survey suggests that only 18% of Japan people have stopped going to work, the lowest level amongst the 26 countries covered.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAIRY DEFICIENCY - With schools and many restaurants and hotels closed, the consumption of dairy products in Japan has declined to the point that the food ministry (MAFF) is requesting those at home to drink milk to save farms and livestock. Please see our recent bearish Insight on Meiji Holdings (2269 JP).Source • Japan AnalyticsTAXI FARE - The are now hordes of empty taxis roaming the streets plying for non-existent fares.  The transport ministry (MLITT) has decided to loosen its taxi regulations to allow taxis to engage in food delivery. While a negative for Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Uber Eats in Japan, this news seems to have prompted a 'pop' in the shares of Japan's only listed, and normally uninvestable, taxi company - Daiwa Motor Transportation (9082 JP). In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the seven results was 2:2:3; and for the 13 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:9. Of the six companies reporting annual results, only one made a forecast for the current year. Three companies withdrew annual forecasts, of which one also cancelled its dividend, while one REIT, Mirai (3476 JP), cut its dividend. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 21st April - Catching Up : Revising Down

Japan

Daiwa Motor Transportation Co., Ltd. provides taxi and limousine services in the Kanto area including Tokyo.  The Company mainly serves corporate customers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Daiwa Motor Transportation (9082 JP)

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated t

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 21st April - Catching Up : Revising Down

CATCHING UP - Japan has now surpassed South Korea in terms of both the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (11,431) and the cumulative number of...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)