Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.</li>
<li>Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.</li>
<li>Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.
Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.
Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.</li>
<li>Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.</li>
<li>The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.
Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.
The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.</li>
<li>For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.</li>
<li>Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.
For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.
Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. </li>
<li>LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. </li>
<li>Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.</li>
</ul>


On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. 
LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. 
Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.


Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

The oncology category has recorded the highest growth over the last five years. Companies with oncology portfolios and new oncology modalities,...

daaimon

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings. Sompo had a stake of over...

Sumeet Singh

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...

Tina Banerjee

Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Orion Corp's investment in LegoChem Bio raises concerns about diversification into risky biotech business. Investors would rather have Orion Corp...

Douglas Kim

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

The oncology category has recorded the highest growth over the last five years. Companies with oncology portfolios and new oncology modalities,...

daaimon

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings. Sompo had a stake of over...

Sumeet Singh

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

​Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

​Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...

Tina Banerjee

Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Orion Corp's investment in LegoChem Bio raises concerns about diversification into risky biotech business. Investors would rather have Orion Corp...

Douglas Kim

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Chugai reported 5% decline in 2023 revenue, dragged by Ronapreve. Despite no revenue from Ronapreve, 2024 revenue is expected to decline just 4%...