Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> established a new <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7911/tdnet/2283187/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium-Term Management Plan</a> with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!</li>
<li>They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. </li>
<li>Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.</li>
</ul>



Toppan Printing (7911 JP) established a new Medium-Term Management Plan with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!
They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. 
Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.


Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. </li>
<li>The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. </li>
<li>The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

Japan

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Toppan had good earnings from securities sales. OP should rise this year. Good. They upped the buyback amount and pace, dramatically. Also good....

Travis Lundy

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

The deal break risks remain low, with the China SAMR timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)