Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Genworth Financial Inc Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

*No Deal, Move On: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  Genworth announced that while the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”; and  *Update Call January 5, 2021: Genworth is hosting a pre-market update call on January 5, 2021 which should provide more color on its contingency plans.

*No Deal, Move On: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  Genworth announced that while the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”; and  *Update Call January 5, 2021: Genworth is hosting a pre-market update call on January 5, 2021 which should provide more color on its contingency plans.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

*SAMR Sideshow: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [Alibaba] on December 14, 2020, SAMR has also launched an inquiry into alleged monopolistic practices at Alibaba whereby it pressures merchants who sell goods on Taobao and Tmall to commit to not selling on competitor platforms which is considered “standard market practice” by Alibaba. The most equitable outcome to this practice, in our view, could be the termination of these exclusive relationships, which no doubt will negatively impact revenues – but this is just a sideshow; and*Moving A Rubber Tree Plant: More importantly, however, Alibaba’s Ant Group was summoned to meet with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) – which now follow the abrupt cancellation of Ant Group’s enormous USD 34 bn IPO – the largest IPO in history. A crackdown on Alibaba/Ant and other fintech firms was likely to happen at some point given the unbridled systemic risk they pose both on the lending and funding front which is overshadowed by technology.

*SAMR Sideshow: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [Alibaba] on December 14, 2020, SAMR has also launched an inquiry into alleged monopolistic practices at Alibaba whereby it pressures merchants who sell goods on Taobao and Tmall to commit to not selling on competitor platforms which is considered “standard market practice” by Alibaba. The most equitable outcome to this practice, in our view, could be the termination of these exclusive relationships, which no doubt will negatively impact revenues – but this is just a sideshow; and*Moving A Rubber Tree Plant: More importantly, however, Alibaba’s Ant Group was summoned to meet with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) – which now follow the abrupt cancellation of Ant Group’s enormous USD 34 bn IPO – the largest IPO in history. A crackdown on Alibaba/Ant and other fintech firms was likely to happen at some point given the unbridled systemic risk they pose both on the lending and funding front which is overshadowed by technology.  

*Poor US Results: In our latest review of HSBC Holdings’ (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (HSBCNA), we note that fundamentals continue to worsen – although management seems to hope that no one will notice the poor quality and how managed 3Q20 results actually were. According to the 3Q20 US regulatory report, HSBCNA reported bottom-line results if USD 160.0 mn, a USD 111.3 mn (228.5%) increase linked quarter. 3Q20 results were driven by two factors: a massive loss provision and tax rate decline; *We Anxiously Await HSBC’s US Departure: According the Financial Times on November 28, 2020, HSBC is considering offloading its entire US retail network - although a full exit from other businesses in the US is unlikely. The recommendation of a US exit is expected to be presented to the board as early as this week, although the Group is scheduled to provide an update on its plans for its French and US businesses in February 2021; and *HSBCNA Should Be Sold: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. Knowing HSBC management as we do, they will continue making the same mistakes over and over again.

*Poor US Results: In our latest review of HSBC Holdings’ (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (HSBCNA), we note that fundamentals continue to worsen – although management seems to hope that no one will notice the poor quality and how managed 3Q20 results actually were. According to the 3Q20 US regulatory report, HSBCNA reported bottom-line results if USD 160.0 mn, a USD 111.3 mn (228.5%) increase linked quarter. 3Q20 results were driven by two factors: a massive loss provision and tax rate decline; *We Anxiously Await HSBC’s US Departure: According the Financial Times on November 28, 2020, HSBC is considering offloading its entire US retail network - although a full exit from other businesses in the US is unlikely. The recommendation of a US exit is expected to be presented to the board as early as this week, although the Group is scheduled to provide an update on its plans for its French and US businesses in February 2021; and *HSBCNA Should Be Sold: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. Knowing HSBC management as we do, they will continue making the same mistakes over and over again. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have.

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. 

*Crackdown Begins: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) or better know as mainland China’s antitrust regulator fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws; and *Small Fine, But Implications Large: The current Tencent fine is relatively small compared to the size of the company, however, it does serve as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off. SAMR is also looking into a recent deal between Huya (HUYA.US) and Douyu (DOYU.US) where Tencent would have 68% of voting shares in the combined entity.

*Crackdown Begins: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) or better know as mainland China’s antitrust regulator fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws; and *Small Fine, But Implications Large: The current Tencent fine is relatively small compared to the size of the company, however, it does serve as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off. SAMR is also looking into a recent deal between Huya (HUYA.US) and Douyu (DOYU.US) where Tencent would have 68% of voting shares in the combined entity.

Tencent Holdings – Slap On The Wrist For Now

Hong Kong

CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the FTSE China A50 Index. The Fund invests most of its total assets in the equities of member companies of the FTSE China A50 Index. This is a RQFII fund.

CSOP FTSE China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)

Genworth Financial –What A Surprise…

GENWORTH FINANCIAL: China Oceanwide Simply Does Not Have The Money To Consummate This Transaction, And Genworth Needs To Move On - But It Wont Be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Alibaba Group Holding – Go Limp

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDINGS: SAMR And Chinese Regulators Are Taking A Run At Alibaba/Ant Group Over Antitrust and Systemic Risk Issues.

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc – Cut and Run

HSBC HOLDINGS: HSBCNA fundamentals continue to worsen – although management seems to hope that no one will notice the poor quality and how managed...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Slap On The Wrist For Now

TENCENT HOLDINGS: SAMR fined Tencent's subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals. The fine is small but...

Thomas J. Monaco