Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright outrageous. Yes, there will always be another trade, yet not all trades are created equal – far from it </li><li>Equities: Europe Up, US down.</li><li>US4QGDP: I’d expect more uplift to feed through, as the full effect of the over 50% fall in oil feeds into discretionary spending. </li><li>Alibaba and Yahoo: Opportunity of potentially getting a discount exposure into Alibaba’s shares through the Spin Co </li><li>Alibaba’s big miss on the bottom line, sent its shares down c. -14% for the week – primarily due to options compensation expenses – with a Friday close of sub 90 at $89.08, its looking interesting. 2016 valuation wise, its in-line with FB at 31x P/E yet set to grow at a faster clip at +35% earnings. </li><li>CAD: When you trade CAD, a part of you is taking a view on oil… </li></ul>

Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright outrageous. Yes, there will always be another trade, yet not all trades are created equal – far from it Equities: Europe Up, US down.US4QGDP: I’d expect more uplift to feed through, as the full effect of the over 50% fall in oil feeds into discretionary spending. Alibaba and Yahoo: Opportunity of potentially getting a discount exposure into Alibaba’s shares through the Spin Co Alibaba’s big miss on the bottom line, sent its shares down c. -14% for the week – primarily due to options compensation expenses – with a Friday close of sub 90 at $89.08, its looking interesting. 2016 valuation wise, its in-line with FB at 31x P/E yet set to grow at a faster clip at +35% earnings. CAD: When you trade CAD, a part of you is taking a view on oil… 

The Matrix: A Strategist's roving thoughts: Swiss Francs, Europe, Alibaba

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<span style='font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;'>The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Monetary policy in the euro area remains slow to respond to the persistent decline in inflation and as a result, the region is vulnerable to any shock that leads to further disinflation or outright deflation.&nbsp; The IMF appears to have adopted the Larry Summers ‘secular stagnation’ view of the post crisis global economy, which draws heavily on the Reinhart/Rogoff interpretation of history; that recoveries from balance sheet recessions are structural and therefore painfully slow.&nbsp; As long as the IMF and other economic forecasters continue to downgrade expectations of global growth, investors should be overweight safe assets and defensive sectors within stock markets, particularly companies that offer sustainably high payout yields, and strong earnings predictability.&nbsp;

The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Monetary policy in the euro area remains slow to respond to the persistent decline in inflation and as a result, the region is vulnerable to any shock that leads to further disinflation or outright deflation.&nbsp; The IMF appears to have adopted the Larry Summers ‘secular stagnation’ view of the post crisis global economy, which draws heavily on the Reinhart/Rogoff interpretation of history; that recoveries from balance sheet recessions are structural and therefore painfully slow.&nbsp; As long as the IMF and other economic forecasters continue to downgrade expectations of global growth, investors should be overweight safe assets and defensive sectors within stock markets, particularly companies that offer sustainably high payout yields, and strong earnings predictability.&nbsp; 

The IMF's Patience with the ECB Wears Thin

Australia

CSL Limited develops, manufactures and markets human pharmaceutical and diagnostic products derived from human plasma. The Company's products include pediatric and adult vaccines, infection, pain medicine, skin disorder remedies, antivenoms, anticoagulants, and immunoglobulins.

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CSL Ltd (CSL AU)

The Matrix: A Strategist's roving thoughts: Swiss Francs, Europe, Alibaba

Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright...

Kay Van-Petersen

The IMF's Patience with the ECB Wears Thin

The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy. Monetary policy in...

Sam Ferraro

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52-week Range

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