Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Equity Bottom-Up

Country Garden Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. vowed to deliver more than 480,000 homes in 2024, a more modest target than 2023 after it failed to achieve its 700,000-unit goal last year.</li><li>The focus of 2024 is still to “guarantee delivery, guarantee operation and guarantee credit,” of which delivery is the bottom line that Country Garden “must firmly hold,” Chairwoman Yang Huiyan said at the developer’s annual meeting Monday.</li><li>Country Garden, once China’s No. 1 developer by sales, delivered more than 600,000 units last year, short of its goal set at the beginning of 2023, the developer said.</li></ul>

Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. vowed to deliver more than 480,000 homes in 2024, a more modest target than 2023 after it failed to achieve its 700,000-unit goal last year.The focus of 2024 is still to “guarantee delivery, guarantee operation and guarantee credit,” of which delivery is the bottom line that Country Garden “must firmly hold,” Chairwoman Yang Huiyan said at the developer’s annual meeting Monday.Country Garden, once China’s No. 1 developer by sales, delivered more than 600,000 units last year, short of its goal set at the beginning of 2023, the developer said.

Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024 

Country Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for the first half, raising further concerns as the company slides deeper into a debt crisis.Guangdong-based Country Garden estimated its net loss at 45 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan ($6.2 billion to $7.6 billion) for the first six months of 2023, compared with a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan a year ago, according to <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0810/2023081001200.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Hong Kong exchange filing </a>late Thursday.The company warned July 31 that it would report red ink for the first half.

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for the first half, raising further concerns as the company slides deeper into a debt crisis.Guangdong-based Country Garden estimated its net loss at 45 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan ($6.2 billion to $7.6 billion) for the first six months of 2023, compared with a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan a year ago, according to a Hong Kong exchange filing late Thursday.The company warned July 31 that it would report red ink for the first half.

Country Garden Expects to Report Record First-Half Loss

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The profit alert came slightly below expectation for both reported and core profits at -51% to -57%/+5% (vs. most bearish market expectation of -50%/+7%).</li><li>This may put its share price under pressure at the market opening.</li><li>However, we think the worst is almost over as 1) net profit growth may start to accelerate in 2023E at double digit with improving macro and the assumed addition of 100mn sqm managed GFA. 2) Country Garden started to see sales pick up in Feb (+10% MoM). 3) Impairment would be limited in 2023E after ~RMB2bn done in 2022. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The profit alert came slightly below expectation for both reported and core profits at -51% to -57%/+5% (vs. most bearish market expectation of -50%/+7%).This may put its share price under pressure at the market opening.However, we think the worst is almost over as 1) net profit growth may start to accelerate in 2023E at double digit with improving macro and the assumed addition of 100mn sqm managed GFA. 2) Country Garden started to see sales pick up in Feb (+10% MoM). 3) Impairment would be limited in 2023E after ~RMB2bn done in 2022. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CG Services (6098 HK) – Is it time to bottom fish yet?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are positive towards PM sector in 2023 as it is the key beneficiary of both housing completion push (GFA gain) and reopening (Community VAS), so higher growth and better cash collection.</li><li>This would create room for the existing market leaders and surviving POEs (after property crisis) to accelerate earnings growth, both organically and via M&amp;A activities.</li><li>Therefore, we forecast 2023E earnings growth at 23% from a low base of 12% in 2022E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are positive towards PM sector in 2023 as it is the key beneficiary of both housing completion push (GFA gain) and reopening (Community VAS), so higher growth and better cash collection.This would create room for the existing market leaders and surviving POEs (after property crisis) to accelerate earnings growth, both organically and via M&amp;A activities.Therefore, we forecast 2023E earnings growth at 23% from a low base of 12% in 2022E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Service Sector – 2023 a year for market leaders and survivors

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes.</li><li>PBOC has added policy support by cutting longer-dated LPR rates for home loan pricing. Longfor Group and Country Garden are highly rated, large China Real Estate developers.</li><li>They do not seem to respond positively to many tailwinds</li></ul>

The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes.PBOC has added policy support by cutting longer-dated LPR rates for home loan pricing. Longfor Group and Country Garden are highly rated, large China Real Estate developers.They do not seem to respond positively to many tailwinds

Hang Seng Index Constituents 2nd June 2022

China

Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited provides real estate development services. The Company develops residential apartments, multi-functional complex buildings, government and public facilities, industrial parks, highway service stations, and schools. Country Garden Services Holdings serves clients in China.

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Country Garden Services (6098 HK)

Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024

Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. vowed to deliver more than 480,000 homes in 2024, a more modest target than 2023 after...

Caixin Global

Country Garden Expects to Report Record First-Half Loss

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for...

Caixin Global

CG Services (6098 HK) – Is it time to bottom fish yet?

The profit alert came slightly below expectation for both reported and core profits at -51% to -57%/+5% (vs. most bearish market expectation of ...

CMB International

China Property Service Sector – 2023 a year for market leaders and survivors

We are positive towards PM sector in 2023 as it is the key beneficiary of both housing completion push (GFA gain) and reopening (Community VAS), so...

CMB International

Hang Seng Index Constituents 2nd June 2022

The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes. PBOC has added policy support by cutting...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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