Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

<ul>
<li>China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists</li>
<li>The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates</li>
<li>Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days </li>
</ul>


China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days 


China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Binjiang Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A recent rally in property management companies due to measures taken by the government has set <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binjiang-service-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28940:1" rel="noopener">Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)</a> for a big move upwards.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap and trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23e PE with 37% of the market cap in cash and a 5.8%/7.4% FY22e/23e dividend yield.</li>
<li>Catalysts for the company are further loosening on the property by the government and a profit alert of 38-40% earnings growth for FY22.</li>
</ul>


A recent rally in property management companies due to measures taken by the government has set Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) for a big move upwards.
The stock is cheap and trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23e PE with 37% of the market cap in cash and a 5.8%/7.4% FY22e/23e dividend yield.
Catalysts for the company are further loosening on the property by the government and a profit alert of 38-40% earnings growth for FY22.


Binjiang: Set up for a Good Move From Here

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

China Property: We highlight the latest indicators for July and August for the new home markets in China, as well as the latest policy developments.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

A weekly summary of a curated set of Chinese news articles/posts and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

Binjiang: Set up for a Good Move From Here

Binjiang trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23 PE with a dividend yield of 5.7/7.4% based on a 60% payout ratio. It is the best way to play the PMC bounce...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)