Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022</li>
<li>The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications</li>
<li>You can <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">join this year's 'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook</li>
</ul>


We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022
The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications
You can join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook


China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 19-25, 2024

<ul>
<li>We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.</li>
<li>Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.</li>
<li>Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.</li>
</ul>


We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.
Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.
Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.


China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions </li>
<li>Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot</li>
<li>Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure</li>
</ul>


There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions 
Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot
Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure


Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

Price Gauge
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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Before getting into the forecasts for 2024, reviewing how the past forecasts fared vs the actuals can be quite illuminating, here is the case for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 19-25, 2024

This note is a weekly (Jan 19-25, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

China Housing - visualizing more granular city-level property data over multiple periods of time gives a better intuition about the market across...

Robert Ciemniak

Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Expect earnings to be released soon. There remains considerable risk to core insurance operations, with worsening China and Hong Kong markets, but...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)