Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on Chinese developers’ JV exposure, including typical structures and the JV exposure of the companies under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on Chinese developers’ JV exposure, including typical structures and the JV exposure of the companies under our coverage.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers' JV Exposure - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.At the September review, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> are close adds.Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.78% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.86bn.The expected inclusions will have a higher index weight and a lower dividend yield as compared to the expected exclusions and this could push the HSCEI 2022 dividends and the 2021/22 steepener lower.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).At the September review, we see JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) being included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), replacing Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK).Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) and Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) are close adds.Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.78% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.86bn.The expected inclusions will have a higher index weight and a lower dividend yield as compared to the expected exclusions and this could push the HSCEI 2022 dividends and the 2021/22 steepener lower.

HSCEI Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: JD Logistics, Li Ning Are Potential Adds

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - May 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.
Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. 
BYD also announced that a total of 1500 Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year.
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BYD is added into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. 
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BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. 
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Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. 
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China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.
Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. 
BYD also announced that a total of 1500 Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year.

BYD is added into Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. 

BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. 

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. 


BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hscei-june-2021-index-rebalance-preview-three-adds-four-deletes-possible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a>.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> was widely expected to be included but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, the stock could outperform till implementation date.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are BYD (1211 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), while Guangdong Investment (270 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) and China Tower (788 HK) have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our forecast.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and China Tower (788 HK).There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). BYD (1211 HK) was widely expected to be included but Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), the stock could outperform till implementation date. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers' JV Exposure - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on Chinese developers’ JV exposure, including typical structures and the JV exposure of...

Lucror Analytics

HSCEI Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: JD Logistics, Li Ning Are Potential Adds

There could be 2 sets of changes to the HSCEI at the September review with JD Logistics and Li Ning being included and Shimao Property and Anhui...

Brian Freitas

Asia HY Trade Book - May 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time...

Henry Soediarko

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

The 2 adds and 3 deletes for the HSCEI are just what we expected. BYD is an inclusion in the HSI too and could move higher over the next 2 weeks....

Brian Freitas

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