Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Japanese activist Murakami-san and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. </li>
<li>Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/content/dam/corp/jp/ja/news/2023/10/24-1/pdf/231024jp_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doc</a> (Japanese).</li>
<li>At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.</li>
</ul>


Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. 
Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.


Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>In my piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamauchi-family-office-buys-more-toyo-toyo-claims-more-malfeasance-iss-supports-yfo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104604" rel="noopener">Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO</a> I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.</li>
<li>I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.</li>
<li>What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. </li>
</ul>


In my piece Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.
I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.
What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. 


Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

YFO "won" an AGM vs entrenched Toyo Construction mgmt. A great result. How? Retail+Corps sold in '22. Other foreigners did not, and sided with YFO....

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

​Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

YFO "won" an AGM vs entrenched Toyo Construction mgmt. A great result. How? Retail+Corps sold in '22. Other foreigners did not, and sided with YFO....

Travis Lundy

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...