HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Pacific Basin Shipping / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The 3Q21 trading update for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK)</a> painted a positive picture for the earnings performance for 2H21 and FY22. There is good QoQ improvement in time-charter equivalents for its Handysize and Supramax fleet in 3Q21, which are 69.3% and 98.6%, respectively, higher than 1H21. On such basis, we estimate that its 3Q21 profit may be some 33% more than 1H21, blowing away market consensus by sizeable margin.</p><p>Additionally, the growth in minor bulk trade, particularly construction materials, cement and clinker and grains, has underpinned good Handysize and Supramax demand. The supply pressure is also light as net fleet growth is expected to be 3% and 1.8% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. We also think Pacific Basin may take opportunistic disposals of vessel to capture the favourable capital value movements. All in all, we think that having retreated 25% from the peak, the stock has returned to more attractive valuation multiples.</p>

The 3Q21 trading update for Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) painted a positive picture for the earnings performance for 2H21 and FY22. There is good QoQ improvement in time-charter equivalents for its Handysize and Supramax fleet in 3Q21, which are 69.3% and 98.6%, respectively, higher than 1H21. On such basis, we estimate that its 3Q21 profit may be some 33% more than 1H21, blowing away market consensus by sizeable margin.Additionally, the growth in minor bulk trade, particularly construction materials, cement and clinker and grains, has underpinned good Handysize and Supramax demand. The supply pressure is also light as net fleet growth is expected to be 3% and 1.8% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. We also think Pacific Basin may take opportunistic disposals of vessel to capture the favourable capital value movements. All in all, we think that having retreated 25% from the peak, the stock has returned to more attractive valuation multiples.

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Stellar 2H21 in the Making

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

China Resources Pharmaceutical / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2024.</li>
<li>The index changes for the September 2024 index rebal will be announced on 16th August 2024.</li>
<li>The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2024.
The index changes for the September 2024 index rebal will be announced on 16th August 2024.
The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 24: New Economy? Clean Energy? or Shipping?

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.


T.S. Lines Pre-IPO - Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

China

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. offers shipping services. The Company provides container shipping, terminal operation, bulk shipping, and container leasing services. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings conducts businesses worldwide.

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COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919 CH)

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Stellar 2H21 in the Making

Great 3Q21 trading update suggests 2H21 and FY22 outlook remain encouraging. Demand-supply dynamics remain favourable and there is room for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 24: New Economy? Clean Energy? or Shipping?

The index changes for the Hang Seng Index for September 2024 will be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024. In this insight, I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO - Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Clarence Chu

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