Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

With the curve in Mexico bear flattening, we use the opportunity to recommend taking profits on two of our rates trades recommendations: a Mexico 5s10s flattener with a paying bias and receiving Colombia 5y against paying Mexico 5y rate.

With the curve in Mexico bear flattening, we use the opportunity to recommend taking profits on two of our rates trades recommendations: a Mexico 5s10s flattener with a paying bias and receiving Colombia 5y against paying Mexico 5y rate.

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Two Rates Recommendations

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving Colombia 5y against paying Mexico 5y rate. Colombian assets have sold off as the government had to withdraw its fiscal consolidation bill on the back of deadly street protests, leading to credit downgrade worries. The downgrade is now reflected in the prices, at least partially, and the rates curve has considerable rate hikes also priced in. In contrast, rates in Mexico are at a greater risk of moving higher in our view especially following the recent high inflation readings and expectations in surveys.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving Colombia 5y against paying Mexico 5y rate. Colombian assets have sold off as the government had to withdraw its fiscal consolidation bill on the back of deadly street protests, leading to credit downgrade worries. The downgrade is now reflected in the prices, at least partially, and the rates curve has considerable rate hikes also priced in. In contrast, rates in Mexico are at a greater risk of moving higher in our view especially following the recent high inflation readings and expectations in surveys.

Alpha Bites: Receive Colombia 5y Versus Pay Mexico 5y Rate

This is the third edition of our monthly trade ideas recap note in which we list our current trade recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12 trade recommendations so far, of which 8 are in the money.

This is the third edition of our monthly trade ideas recap note in which we list our current trade recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12 trade recommendations so far, of which 8 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap (May 2021)

In this note, we discuss the trigger behind the latest bout of steepening of Colombia's rate curve and argue that the steepening should continue in line with our trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the trigger behind the latest bout of steepening of Colombia's rate curve and argue that the steepening should continue in line with our trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Colombia’s Curve Steepens on Fiscal Concerns

Colombia

A vanila interest rate swap us an agreement between two counterparties to exchange cashflows (fixed vs floating) in the same currency. This agreement is often used by counterparties to change their fixed cashflows to floating or vice versa. The payments are made during the life of the swap in the frequency that is pre-established by the counterparties.

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COP 5Y (CLSWIB5 CURNCY)

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Two Rates Recommendations

With Mexico's curve bear flattening, we use the opportunity to recommend taking profits on two of our rates trades recommendations: Mexico 5s10s...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

While Mexico's central bank held rates steady at the meeting last week, we continue to expect it to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Receive Colombia 5y Versus Pay Mexico 5y Rate

We recommend receiving Colombia 5y against paying Mexico 5y rate as Colombia is reflecting the downgrade risk and has significantly more rate hikes...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap (May 2021)

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list our current recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Colombia’s Curve Steepens on Fiscal Concerns

We discuss the trigger behind the latest bout of steepening of Colombia's rate curve and argue that the steepening should continue in line with our...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)