Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aareal-bank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21584:1" rel="noopener">Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-euroshop-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21605:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Euroshop Ag (DEQ GR)</a> are currently involved in takeover situations which might also have index change implications.</li>
<li>Based on current data, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall (RHM GR)</a> is leading the race to become a DAX ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hellofresh-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26000:1" rel="noopener">HelloFresh (HFG GR)</a> is leading the race to become a DAX DEL.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.

Aareal Bank AG (ARL GR) and Deutsche Euroshop Ag (DEQ GR) are currently involved in takeover situations which might also have index change implications.
Based on current data, Rheinmetall (RHM GR) is leading the race to become a DAX ADD and HelloFresh (HFG GR) is leading the race to become a DAX DEL.


DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Rheinmetall, HelloFresh, & Other Potential Changes

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>DAX is a German blue-chip index that currently tracks the 40 largest companies listed on the Regulated Market of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. </li>
<li>The DAX Index is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September, and December. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential constituency changes that can happen in the March 2022 review.</li>
</ul>


DAX is a German blue-chip index that currently tracks the 40 largest companies listed on the Regulated Market of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. 
The DAX Index is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September, and December. 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential constituency changes that can happen in the March 2022 review.


DAX Index: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 (2.0)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Sberbank of Russia PJSC / Equity Bottom-Up

*Russia Military Raises Threat Level: After years of an uneasy stalemate, Russia’s Southern Military Theater recently concluded major exercises in March. Despite their conclusion, 3-4 thousand Russian troops allegedly remain just 30 miles from Ukraine's southern border. On March 27th, Russia indicated its displeasure with the lack of progress on ceasefire negotiations while the Ukrainian Parliament announced that the July ceasefire had broken down with continued skirmishes and border incursions;  *Ukranian Bank Already Under Pressure: SberBank of Russia PJSC (SBER.RM) [Sberbank] has been operating its wholly-owned Ukraine subsidiary, AO Sberbank (AO), since 2007. AO has been operating profitably following improved cost efficiencies and lowered loss provisions despite being constrained by a high level of problem loans and exposure to COVID-19 affected sectors. Further, AO, along with most other Ukranian banks, has substantial government bond holdings whose ratings are already challenged; and   * New Sanctions Likely Coming: We would any new additional sanctions to include: the Nord Stream II Pipeline, which is close to allowing the transshipment of natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany (bypassing Ukraine); further sanctions on the Russian financial sector which could exacerbate problems for the already challenged AO; and a ban on Russian sovereign debt as an investment.

*Russia Military Raises Threat Level: After years of an uneasy stalemate, Russia’s Southern Military Theater recently concluded major exercises in March. Despite their conclusion, 3-4 thousand Russian troops allegedly remain just 30 miles from Ukraine's southern border. On March 27th, Russia indicated its displeasure with the lack of progress on ceasefire negotiations while the Ukrainian Parliament announced that the July ceasefire had broken down with continued skirmishes and border incursions;  *Ukranian Bank Already Under Pressure: SberBank of Russia PJSC (SBER.RM) [Sberbank] has been operating its wholly-owned Ukraine subsidiary, AO Sberbank (AO), since 2007. AO has been operating profitably following improved cost efficiencies and lowered loss provisions despite being constrained by a high level of problem loans and exposure to COVID-19 affected sectors. Further, AO, along with most other Ukranian banks, has substantial government bond holdings whose ratings are already challenged; and   * New Sanctions Likely Coming: We would any new additional sanctions to include: the Nord Stream II Pipeline, which is close to allowing the transshipment of natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany (bypassing Ukraine); further sanctions on the Russian financial sector which could exacerbate problems for the already challenged AO; and a ban on Russian sovereign debt as an investment.  

Sberbank of Russia – Ukraine Risks Rising

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bnp-paribas-capital-forbearance-and-cds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46684" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS</a> for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note that<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note thatCommerzbank AG (CBK GR) set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Rheinmetall, HelloFresh, & Other Potential Changes

Based on current share prices, DAX, MDAX, and SDAX indices seem likely to experience one or more changes each in the September 2022 Regular Review.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX Index: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 (2.0)

A look at the potential adds and potential deletes for the DAX index in the March 2022 review. Our estimates show there could be one or two changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

Sberbank of Russia – Ukraine Risks Rising

SBERBANK: After an uneasy stalemate, Russia recently concluded major exercises. Ceasefire negotiations have broken down. SberBank's Ukraine...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

Fixed income goal posts were clearly moved by Democratic Party control of the Senate. Credit has limited upside in the current reflation scenario....

Hank Calenti, CFA

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